Friedberg @ 00:48:32Inconclusive
markets
For approximately the ten years following this May 2021 episode (through about 2031), the streaming/media market will be characterized by intense competition among many separate subscription services, requiring consumers to pick and choose among multiple fragmented providers to access desired content rather than relying on a single or simple bundled offering.
and it's going to be a nasty battle for the next ten years where you and where you want content, you're going to have to go pick and choose who do you want to buy content fromView on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction covers roughly May 2021–May 2031, so as of November 2025 the full 10‑year period has not elapsed.
Evidence so far (2021–2025) largely supports Friedberg’s description:
- The number of major subscription streamers has remained high (Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Hulu, Max, Paramount+, Peacock, Apple TV+, etc.), and consumer surveys in 2024–2025 report that the average U.S. household pays for about four video streaming services and that 62% of subscribers believe there are too many options, reflecting fragmentation and the need to pick and choose across services. (fool.com)
- Articles on “subscription burnout” in 2025 attribute rising cancellations partly to content being split across many platforms, forcing people to juggle multiple paid or ad‑supported services. (techtimes.com)
- At the same time, the industry is starting to respond with bundles and consolidation: Disney has long sold a Disney+/Hulu/ESPN+ bundle and is planning to fold Hulu fully into Disney+ by 2026; Warner Bros. Discovery merged HBO Max and Discovery+ into Max; Paramount+ integrated Showtime; and telecoms like Verizon and T‑Mobile increasingly market multi‑service streaming bundles. (techradar.com)
- Analysts in 2025 are explicitly predicting that a “mega‑bundle” era could arrive in the next 2–3 years, which, if it materializes and becomes dominant before 2031, would undercut the idea of a full decade of fragmented, pick‑and‑choose competition. (businessinsider.com)
So far, the competitive, fragmented landscape Friedberg anticipated does describe the market reasonably well, but because his prediction is about conditions lasting for roughly ten years (through ~2031), it is too early to say definitively whether it will hold for the entire period. Hence the outcome must be marked as inconclusive (too early) rather than fully right or wrong.