Multiple data series show that U.S. consumer prices experienced an unusually large inflation surge in the 1–2 years following mid‑2021, well above the pre‑COVID norm.

• Magnitude of the surge: CPI inflation for calendar year 2021 was about 7%, the highest annual rate since the early 1980s. (usinflationcalculator.com) In 2022, year‑over‑year CPI peaked around 8.6–9.1% (e.g., 8.6% in May 2022 and 9.1% in June 2022), again the highest in roughly four decades. (politifact.com) These levels are widely characterized as the worst U.S. inflation bout since the early 1980s. (americafirstpolicy.com)

• Relative to pre‑COVID period: Pre‑pandemic inflation (roughly the 2010s through 2019) generally ran close to ~1.5–2.5%, and summary analyses of BLS data show average inflation of about 1.5% in the pre‑COVID years vs. around 2.7% in the post‑COVID years, with the 2021–2022 spike standing out clearly above that long‑run norm. (theworlddata.com) This represents exactly the kind of “significant” price inflation relative to the pre‑COVID baseline that the prediction anticipated.

Because U.S. consumer prices did, in fact, undergo a large and historically high inflation spike in the near term after mid‑2021, Chamath’s prediction that the policy mix and cost pressures would drive price inflation is best judged as right.