ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E24: Markets trend down, political manipulation via COVID "Zeroism," stimulus breakdown, biological Patriot Act
Back
Sacks @ 00:50:39Wrong
politicsgovernmenthealth
By summer 2021, most other U.S. states will have substantially reopened while California will still be relatively restricted under Governor Newsom—likely without a full agreement to reopen schools with teachers unions—and this perceived laggard status and over‑restrictiveness will become a central issue in the Newsom recall election.
I think what you could see by this summer is that California will look like a laggard. You'll see that politicians like Newsom are holding on to the zero list philosophy. They're being too restrictive. They look ridiculous compared to other states. And he still probably won't have an agreement with the teachers unions to go back to school. And I think this could become the big issue in the in the recall.View on YouTube
Explanation

Key falsifiable elements of Sacks’s prediction did not occur, despite COVID being an important backdrop to the recall.

  1. California as a continued “laggard” by summer 2021 and Newsom clinging to a zero‑COVID style over‑restrictiveness
    • On April 6, 2021, Newsom announced that California would end most COVID restrictions and retire its tiered Blueprint system on June 15, shifting to broad reopening with few capacity limits and focusing mainly on vaccination and masking. The Blueprint and statewide mask mandate were in fact ended June 15; by June 8 most Californians were already under the least‑restrictive “Minimal” tier. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • Many states (e.g., Texas, Mississippi, various others) did reopen earlier in spring 2021, but by late May discussion in national coverage and even casual commentary noted that Michigan and some others, not California, would be among the last to fully reopen, and Hawaii had not even set a date. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • Exit‑poll analysis from the recall shows that while the pandemic was top of mind, roughly two‑thirds of voters thought Newsom’s COVID policies were about right or not strict enough; only about one‑third saw them as too strict. (latimes.com) Taken together, California was no longer clearly a reopening “laggard” by summer 2021, and the electorate as a whole did not broadly see Newsom as absurdly over‑restrictive in that period.

  2. “He still probably won’t have an agreement with the teachers unions to go back to school”
    • Los Angeles Unified School District and United Teachers Los Angeles announced a tentative agreement on March 9, 2021 to reopen campuses for in‑person instruction beginning mid‑April, with detailed safety protocols; the school board endorsed it. (lausd.org)
    • At the state level, on March 1 California agreed on a $6.6 billion school‑reopening framework that conditioned funds on districts offering in‑person learning for younger and high‑needs students by the end of March. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • UTLA and LAUSD then reached another agreement effective June 23, 2021, setting conditions for full, five‑days‑a‑week in‑person instruction for the 2021–22 school year. (utla.net) By summer 2021, the largest district and its teachers union clearly did have reopening agreements in place, directly contradicting this part of the prediction.

  3. Did Newsom’s supposed over‑restrictiveness become “the big issue” in the recall?
    • The recall petition’s surge was indeed “widely credited” to anger over lockdowns, job losses, and school and business closures, combined with the French Laundry incident. (en.wikipedia.org) COVID policy was central to why the recall qualified.
    • But by the time of the September 14, 2021 election, California had low COVID rates, a large budget surplus, broad economic reopening, and schools back in session, and analysts noted that other issues (homelessness, taxes, cost of living) were also salient. (latimes.com)
    • Exit polls found the pandemic was the single most important issue overall, yet most voters approved of Newsom’s COVID approach, and his campaign successfully framed the recall as a referendum on pro‑versus‑anti‑mandate COVID policy; this helped him defeat the recall by roughly 62%–38%. (cbsnews.com) COVID was important, but not in the predicted way of Newsom being punished for an obviously over‑restrictive, laggard stance.

Because (a) California did not remain a conspicuous reopening laggard under a continuing “zeroism” posture into summer 2021, (b) major school‑reopening agreements with teachers unions were in place well before and during that summer, and (c) while COVID was central, it did not become the dominant issue in the specific punitive way Sacks described, the overall prediction is best characterized as wrong, notwithstanding some partial correctness about COVID being a major context in the recall.