Sacks @ 01:05:16Wrong
politicsgovernment
The Gavin Newsom recall petition will obtain enough certified signatures to qualify, and the resulting recall election will be scheduled roughly 4–5 months after certification, likely around July 2021.
I think they will get there. I think they'll get there and then there and then the recall election would take place about 4 to 5 months after, uh, after that, there's a couple of months where it moves through the finance committee. The recall election has to be budgeted. And then, um, Newsom would have the opportunity to set a date within, I think, 60 to 80 days, roughly. So I think we're looking at July for a recall electionView on YouTube
Explanation
Evidence shows that the recall petition did obtain enough certified signatures, but the timing of the recall election was substantially different from the prediction.
- On 26 April 2021, the California Secretary of State announced that counties had reported 1,626,042 verified signatures for the Newsom recall, exceeding the 1,495,709 required and thus meeting the threshold to trigger a recall process.(sos.ca.gov)
- On 1 July 2021, the Secretary of State formally certified the recall petition as sufficient, reporting 1,719,900 valid signatures.(sos.ca.gov)
- That same day, the lieutenant governor set the recall election date for 14 September 2021, which was 76 days (about two and a half months) after certification, not 4–5 months, and not in July as forecast.(timesofsandiego.com)
So while the forecast correctly anticipated that the recall petition would qualify, it specifically predicted an election roughly 4–5 months after certification and "looking at July". In reality, the election was held in mid‑September 2021, about 2.5 months after certification. Because the core dated part of the prediction (July timing and 4–5 month lag) was wrong, the overall prediction is rated wrong.