Oh, it would fracture the Republican Party. It would be, um, I guess the best historical analog would be when Teddy Roosevelt left the party to form the Bull Moose Party, he actually fractured the Republican Party. And that allowed, I think, Woodrow Wilson to win the presidency, beating Taft. Um, yeah. I mean, the Republicans would basically lose every election, um, from now until Trump is no longer a force in American politics. If he created, I guess.View on YouTube
The prediction is explicitly conditional: it describes what would happen if Donald Trump were to create a new third party (e.g., a “Patriot Party”) that splits the right-of-center vote. As of late 2025, Trump has not created or led a formal third party; he has remained within the Republican Party and run as its nominee, rather than heading a separate Patriot Party or similar.
Because the triggering condition (Trump forming a third party that fractures the GOP vote) never occurred, we can’t evaluate the stated consequence (“Republicans would basically lose every election… from now until Trump is no longer a force”). The scenario simply hasn’t happened, so the prediction can’t be judged as right or wrong.
Therefore, the correct classification is inconclusive (too early / untriggered condition) rather than right, wrong, or ambiguous in hindsight.