McConnell did in fact make a notably direct statement on January 19, 2021, saying the Capitol mob was "fed lies" and "provoked by the president and other powerful people," which matches the setup Chamath described. (cnbc.com)

In the actual Senate trial, Trump was acquitted on February 13, 2021. The final vote was 57–43 in favor of conviction, 10 votes short of the two‑thirds (67) needed. Seven Republican senators broke with their party to vote to convict; Democrats would have needed 17 Republicans to join them for conviction. (en.wikipedia.org) This is more GOP defection than in Trump’s first impeachment (when only Mitt Romney voted to convict) but still far from the number required to make conviction genuinely imminent.

Chamath’s normalized prediction is that McConnell’s statement would lead enough Republicans to break ranks that the second impeachment trial "has a real chance" to result in conviction rather than acquittal. Because this is a probabilistic and vague claim about ex‑ante likelihood ("real chance") rather than a straightforward forecast that Trump would be convicted, and because we cannot directly observe the underlying probabilities or internal deliberations, its truth value cannot be determined objectively from the outcome alone. The trial ended in acquittal despite some GOP defections, so parts of his narrative (McConnell’s criticism, multiple Republicans voting to convict) materialized, but the key qualitative judgment about a "real chance" of conviction remains inherently subjective. Therefore the prediction is best classified as ambiguous rather than clearly right or wrong.