Donald Trump was criminally convicted in New York on May 30, 2024, on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with a hush‑money payment to Stormy Daniels related to the 2016 campaign, not to his conduct in office or efforts around the 2020 election. 【1search0】 The later criminal efforts that were directly about the 2020 election and his conduct in trying to overturn it have now all been dropped or dismissed: the federal election‑obstruction case and the classified‑documents case were terminated after his reelection, and the Georgia state election‑interference case was formally dismissed in November 2025, ending the last criminal attempt to prosecute him over the 2020 election. 【1news14】【2news13】

At sentencing in the New York case on January 10, 2025, Judge Juan Merchan imposed an unconditional discharge, which, under New York law, means no jail time, no probation, and no fines; Trump remains a convicted felon but serves no custodial sentence. 【2search0】【2search1】【2search5】 Multiple explanations of this disposition emphasize that an unconditional discharge carries no imprisonment or other penalties beyond the conviction itself. 【2search2】【2search3】

As of November 29, 2025, there is no record of Trump having served any time in jail or prison in connection with this or any other criminal case, and the prosecutions tied to his conduct in office or the 2020 election have ended without conviction. 【1news14】【2news13】 Because the prediction required that he both be convicted for such conduct and "go to jail" (serve time in prison) in the ensuing years, and neither condition has been met, the prediction is best scored as wrong rather than merely "inconclusive."