The prediction assumed that within roughly 2–3 years from January 2021 (by early 2023–early 2024) the U.S. would take decisive policy or regulatory action on Big Tech that clarified whether major platforms would be broken up or subjected to a clearly defined new regulatory regime.

In Congress, the main Big Tech antitrust bills — the American Innovation and Choice Online Act, the Open App Markets Act, and later the AMERICA Act — advanced out of committee but stalled and were never enacted; AICOA never even received a House floor vote, and OAMA/AMERICA remain only proposed legislation. (en.wikipedia.org) Instead, the only significant competition laws that actually passed in this period were narrower measures like the Merger Filing Fee Modernization Act and the State Antitrust Enforcement Venue Act, which mainly adjust merger filing fees and litigation venues rather than establishing a new regulatory framework for Big Tech platforms. (en.wikipedia.org)

On the executive side, President Biden’s 2021 Executive Order 14036 launched a whole-of-government push for tougher antitrust enforcement, signaling a more aggressive posture toward large firms, including tech, but it did not itself create a detailed new regulatory regime for platforms; it was later revoked by President Trump in 2025, underscoring that U.S. policy direction on competition remains contested rather than settled. (en.wikipedia.org)

Enforcement actions ramped up, but they did not produce clear, final outcomes within the 2–3 year window. The Justice Department’s search-monopoly case against Google went to trial in 2023, with a liability ruling finding Google an illegal monopolist issued in August 2024 — after the prediction window — and a 2025 remedies decision that rejected the most radical structural remedy (breaking up Chrome/Android) in favor of behavioral rules, leaving Google intact. (en.wikipedia.org) A separate DOJ suit filed in January 2023 targeting Google’s ad-tech business likewise aimed at potential divestitures but only produced a monopoly-liability ruling and ongoing remedy fight in 2025, well beyond early 2024. (justice.gov) Other major cases — such as the FTC’s long-running attempt to unwind Meta’s acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp — were still being litigated past the end of the window and ultimately resulted in Meta winning dismissal in 2025, not a breakup. (en.wikipedia.org)

Contemporary overviews of antitrust reform note that, by late 2024, sweeping Big Tech legislation had failed, while enforcement had intensified but remained a slow, case-by-case process, with no comprehensive “rules of the road” in place. (theverge.com) Taken together, this shows that by early 2024 the U.S. still had not clearly decided in policy or law whether Big Tech platforms would be broken up or put under a stable, heavy regulatory regime. Even as of late 2025, that question remains unresolved. Therefore, the prediction that we would "find out in the next 2 to 3 years" was wrong.