Evidence shows Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz faced short‑term backlash after their January 6, 2021 objections, but their medium‑term and current political standing—especially with Republican voters and in their 2024 races—was not ultimately harmed and in some ways was reinforced.

1. Immediate backlash and elite costs (real but temporary)

   • Hawley’s high‑profile role in objecting to certification led to calls for resignation and a majority of Missouri voters saying shortly after Jan. 6 that he should resign; even about one in five Missouri Republicans agreed. His approval was underwater in that moment. (thedailybeast.com)
   • Simon & Schuster canceled Hawley’s book deal specifically over his role in challenging the election; the book was quickly picked up by Regnery, mitigating the damage. (townhall.com)
   • Numerous major corporations publicly paused or suspended PAC donations to lawmakers who voted against certification, explicitly including Hawley and Cruz (e.g., Amazon, Microsoft, AT&T, Walmart, Marriott, Nike, etc.). (cnbc.com)
   • However, watchdog reports later documented that many corporations or associated PACs resumed giving—directly or via party committees—to members of the so‑called “Sedition Caucus,” blunting the long‑term financial impact. (citizensforethics.org)

2. Support among Republican voters rebounded and is now very strong

   • While Morning Consult data showed immediate post‑riot approval drops among Republicans in Missouri and Texas, majorities of GOP voters in both states still approved of Hawley and Cruz even in January 2021. (newsweek.com)
   • By 2024–25, Hawley’s position with Missouri Republicans is extremely strong: SLU/YouGov polling finds about 86–88% of Missouri Republicans approving of his job performance, with roughly half “strongly approve.” (slu.edu)
   • Similarly, UT/Texas Politics Project polling shows Cruz with very high job‑approval and favorability among Texas Republicans (e.g., around the high‑70s to 80%+ approval in 2022–24, 73% favorable vs 12% unfavorable among Republicans in early 2024). (texaspolitics.utexas.edu)
   • Broader polling indicates that Republican voters overall tended to approve of efforts to object to the 2020 results; in Georgia, for example, Republicans approved of lawmakers voting to overturn the election by a net +44 points. (dataforprogress.org) This undercuts the specific claim that the objection would hurt Hawley and Cruz “including with Republican voters.”

3. Electoral outcomes: both were comfortably re‑elected in 2024

   • In November 2024, Hawley won re‑election in Missouri with 55.6% of the vote to Democrat Lucas Kunce’s 41.8%, a solid double‑digit margin in a statewide race. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Ted Cruz won re‑election to a third Senate term in Texas with 53.1% to Colin Allred’s 44.6%, improving substantially on his close 2018 margin. (en.wikipedia.org) His performance exceeded late polling expectations, suggesting no decisive electoral penalty.
   • Pre‑election polling in both states consistently showed them ahead; Cook and other handicappers continued to rate Hawley’s seat as “Solid/Lean Republican,” and Texas polling showed Cruz holding clear leads and strong backing from GOP voters. (cnbc.com)

4. Fundraising and intra‑GOP standing often benefited

   • Reporting in early 2021 found the NRSC got some of its best small‑dollar digital fundraising returns using Hawley’s name—second only to its own chair—indicating his objection enhanced his value with grassroots Republican donors rather than hurting it. (cnbc.com)
   • Subsequent Missouri polling shows Hawley’s overall favorability and job approval improving by 2024–25 compared with the immediate post‑riot period, with analysts noting his combative style resonates with Republican voters. (missouriindependent.com)
   • Cruz remains one of the best‑known national GOP figures and is routinely listed among plausible 2028 presidential contenders; recent coverage of his feud with Tucker Carlson explicitly frames both as likely 2028 aspirants, not sidelined figures. (politico.com)

5. 2024 presidential ambitions and broader prospects

   • Sacks tied the objection to ambitions for 2024. In reality, both men chose not to run for president in 2024, mainly because Donald Trump dominated the field, not because GOP voters turned against them over Jan. 6.
   • Hawley repeatedly said in January 2021 that he was not running for president and would focus on his Senate work; he later publicly ruled out a 2024 run. (foxnews.com)
   • Cruz openly flirted with a 2024 presidential bid but ultimately prioritized his Senate re‑election, while keeping national ambitions alive for the post‑Trump era. (foxnews.com) His continued positioning for 2028 suggests his “future prospects” within the party remain intact.

Bottom line:

Their Jan. 6 objections clearly produced short‑term reputational and financial costs with national elites and general‑election audiences, but:

• They retain overwhelming support among Republican voters in their states.
• Both decisively won re‑election in 2024.
• Hawley remains a powerful figure in Missouri, and Cruz is still treated as a serious future presidential contender.

Given that their core political careers and standing with GOP voters have not been “ultimately” harmed—and in some respects were strengthened within the party—the prediction that this move would hurt rather than help their political prospects, especially among Republicans and regarding future ambitions, is best judged as wrong overall.