Friedberg’s claim was explicitly conditional: if the U.S. adopted a highly centralized, 24/7, mass-site, nurse‑ and National Guard–driven vaccination program, he argued it could vaccinate essentially the whole population in 90 days. The United States did not implement anything close to that specific model. The real program combined federal coordination (Operation Warp Speed and then the Biden administration) with mostly state- and county-run clinics, hospitals, and large pharmacy chains, not a single uniform, round‑the‑clock national campaign run through mass sites and the Guard. (en.wikipedia.org)

Empirically, the actual rollout was far slower than his 90‑day vision: the U.S. vaccination program began on December 14, 2020; by April 22, 2021 (about 130 days later), only about 27% of the total population was fully vaccinated and about 41% had received at least one dose. (archive.cdc.gov) By early September 2021, roughly nine months in, about 53% of the total population was fully vaccinated, and about 63% had at least one dose. (archive.cdc.gov) Even by mid‑July 2022, around 67% of the population was fully vaccinated and about 79% had received at least one dose—well short of “the entire country” despite far more than 90 days having elapsed. (archive.cdc.gov)

However, because his forecast was about what would have been possible under a different, never‑implemented system, and not a straightforward prediction of what did happen under the actual U.S. strategy, the real‑world data do not directly confirm or refute his counterfactual engineering claim. The observed rollout shows that the actual approach did not achieve national vaccination in 90 days, but it does not definitively tell us whether his proposed centralized 90‑day plan was feasible in practice. Therefore the prediction’s accuracy is best classified as ambiguous rather than clearly right or wrong.