Evidence shows the recall organizers did obtain enough signatures to trigger a recall election, matching Chamath’s core prediction.

• Actual deadline & signature requirement: The California Secretary of State’s FAQ notes that, after a COVID-related court extension, the deadline to file recall petitions against Governor Gavin Newsom was March 17, 2021, and that the organizers needed 1,495,709 valid signatures (12% of the votes cast in the 2018 gubernatorial election). (sos.ca.gov) Chamath’s “mid or late February” timing is slightly off, but he is clearly referring to the then-upcoming deadline for the recall drive.
• Signatures collected by mid–late February 2021: By February 17, 2021, recall organizers publicly claimed to have collected about 1.7 million total signatures, already exceeding the 1.5 million target in raw count (before official validation). (wsws.org) Around the same period, California officials reported about 1.1 million submitted signatures, with hundreds of thousands still to be processed, indicating the campaign was on track to meet or exceed the required number. (axios.com)
• Official validation and triggering of recall: The Secretary of State later reported that by the March 2021 deadline, 2,117,730 signatures had been submitted, with 1,719,943 ultimately deemed valid—well above the 1,495,709 requirement. (en.wikipedia.org) On April 26, 2021, the Secretary of State formally announced that the threshold of verified signatures had been met, thereby triggering the next phase of the recall process. (sos.ca.gov) This led to the certified 2021 California gubernatorial recall election against Newsom.

Because the organizers did indeed secure more than the required number of signatures in time to trigger a recall election, Chamath’s substantive prediction—that “they’re going to get the votes” and force a recall—was right, even though he was slightly imprecise about the exact calendar deadline.