Jason predicted that, in the U.S., the first two authorized COVID‑19 vaccines (Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) would supply about 40 million doses in December 2020, 50 million in January 2021, and 60 million in February 2021, i.e., roughly 150 million doses by the end of February.

However, federal data and independent reporting show much lower actual deliveries:

• A Government Accountability Office report, citing CDC data, says that by December 30, 2020, Operation Warp Speed had distributed about 12.4 million doses of COVID‑19 vaccines (all Pfizer and Moderna at that time), far short of the administration’s own goal of 40 million doses available by the end of 2020.(files.gao.gov) This makes a December total of 40 million doses in the U.S. clearly unattained.
• The Operation Warp Speed summary notes that by January 31, 2021, a cumulative 63.7 million Pfizer+Moderna doses had been delivered in the U.S.(en.wikipedia.org) Jason’s numbers would imply 40 + 50 = 90 million cumulative doses by that date, which is significantly higher than the 63.7 million actually delivered.
• A Washington Post analysis, using CDC data, reports that by February 23, 2021, about 82 million doses had been delivered in total, split roughly evenly between Pfizer and Moderna, and explicitly notes that earlier projections of 40 million December doses, 60 million in January, and 100 million in February were ‘much higher than reality’.(washingtonpost.com) Even allowing for additional deliveries in the final days of February, cumulative supply remained far below the 150 million implied by Jason’s 40/50/60‑million‑per‑month prediction.

Because actual delivered doses in the U.S. in December 2020, January 2021, and February 2021 were well below 40, 50, and 60 million respectively, Jason’s prediction about vaccine supply from the first two vaccines in America did not come true.