Jason predicted that Iran “is going to be a crazy civil war” and implied this internal conflict would occur before or without Iran having nuclear bombs. He did not give any timeframe.

As of November 29, 2025, Iran has experienced severe unrest and uprisings—most notably the 2022–2023 Mahsa Amini ("Woman, Life, Freedom") protests, which were nationwide and unprecedented but ultimately suppressed with the Islamic Republic’s leadership still firmly in power, and later waves of protests and strikes in 2025 over water, electricity, and economic conditions.(en.wikipedia.org)(en.wikipedia.org)(en.wikipedia.org) Analysts and human-rights reports consistently describe these events as protests/uprisings and heavy crackdowns, not as an organized, sustained civil war between major internal armed factions.(cnbc.com)(hrw.org) There is no credible source describing the situation in Iran up to late 2025 as a civil war.

On the nuclear side, Iran has become a "nuclear threshold" state with large stocks of highly enriched uranium (up to 60%) and very short breakout time, but open-source assessments from arms-control and parliamentary research bodies indicate Iran has not produced weapons-grade (90%) uranium nor demonstrably built or deployed nuclear weapons as of 2025.(iranprimer.usip.org)(iranwatch.org)(commonslibrary.parliament.uk) These sources explicitly treat Iran as capable of moving quickly to a bomb if it chooses, rather than as a state that already possesses nuclear weapons.

Because (1) the forecast civil war has not occurred yet, and (2) Iran has not openly acquired nuclear weapons, while (3) no explicit deadline was given for when this civil war was supposed to happen, there is no way to judge Jason’s prediction as fulfilled or disproven by late 2025. It remains a statement about an open-ended future scenario.

Therefore, the appropriate classification is inconclusive (too early to tell).