Sacks @ 01:03:58Right
economyhealth
Assuming Covid-19 vaccines are rolled out and substantially curb Covid within 3–5 months from late November 2020 (i.e., by roughly March–May 2021), the U.S. economy will rebound very strongly and the year 2021 overall will be a "great" year economically.
I do think the economy is going to bounce back really strong next year because of the vaccines. Right. I think you got to say that if these vaccines and Covid in the next three, four, five months, 2021 is going to be a great year.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction tied a strong 2021 economic rebound to successful vaccine rollout that would "end COVID" within about 3–5 months from late Nov 2020.
What actually happened with COVID and vaccines (Mar–May 2021)
- By May 22, 2021, 57% of U.S. adults had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, and eligibility had been opened to all adults a month earlier; by May 26, roughly half of U.S. adults were fully vaccinated. (cdc.gov)
- Cases and hospitalizations fell sharply from the January 2021 winter peak into late winter and spring, reflecting a substantial curbing of the initial winter wave, though not elimination of the virus. (abc7news.com)
- However, COVID was not "ended" within 3–5 months: the Delta variant became dominant by early July 2021 and drove a major resurgence in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths later that year. (cdc.gov)
Economic outcomes in 2021
- Real U.S. GDP grew 5.7% in 2021 after a 3.4% contraction in 2020, the fastest annual growth since 1984 and widely described as a sharp, historic rebound. (bea.gov)
- The economy added about 6.4 million jobs in 2021, and the unemployment rate fell from 6.7% in December 2020 to 3.9% in December 2021, returning close to pre-pandemic levels. (washingtonpost.com)
- This strong real growth was accompanied by supply-chain problems and the beginnings of the high inflation that would peak in 2022, so the year was not problem-free, but by standard macro indicators 2021 was a very strong recovery year.
Assessment
- The conditional epidemiological assumption (that vaccines would effectively "end" COVID within 3–5 months) was too optimistic, but vaccines did substantially curb the initial winter wave by spring 2021.
- The core economic forecast—that 2021 would be a "great" year economically with a very strong rebound—was borne out by GDP growth, job gains, and falling unemployment.
On balance, given that the main claim being evaluated is the strength of the 2021 economic rebound contingent on reasonably successful vaccine rollout, this prediction is best judged as right, though its timeline and optimism about fully ending COVID were overstated.