Chamath @ 01:08:14Right
politics
E predicts that in the days immediately following election night 2020, Americans will largely remain calm, with little violent or disruptive action, and will mostly sit tight and wait for officials to count votes and resolve the election.
I think everybody's going to be tense. Jay I think I don't I don't think you're going to see a lot of action one way or the other. I think that people I think people in America are incredibly good people. I think that folks are just going to sit tight and hope that the folks whose job it is to do their job, do their job.View on YouTube
Explanation
Evidence from the days immediately following the November 3, 2020 U.S. election shows:
- Nationwide pattern: News reports on November 4 described “scattered protests” from Washington, D.C. to Washington state but emphasized that there were no signs of widespread unrest or violence linked to the election, and that demonstrations in cities like Seattle, Philadelphia, Washington, and New York were largely peaceful.【1search1】【1search7】
- Protests focused on counting, mostly peaceful: Many demonstrations were "count every vote" rallies urging that ballots be tallied; they were large but peaceful in multiple cities, with fears of broad civil unrest noted as not having materialized.【1search8】
- Localized disruptive incidents: There were some disruptive or tense events—e.g., a riot declaration and limited property damage in Portland with brief National Guard deployment,【1search4】【1search6】 and armed pro‑Trump crowds outside vote‑counting centers in places like Phoenix and Detroit that alarmed election officials but did not escalate into major violence.【0search0】【0search5】【2view0】 These were notable but geographically limited.
- Scale relative to expectations: Analysts and officials had widely feared broad post‑election violence; contemporaneous reporting stressed that such widespread violence and breakdown did not occur in the immediate post‑election days.【1search5】【1search7】
- Later violence outside the time window: Major violent events aimed at overturning the result, especially the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack, occurred two months later, not in the “days immediately following” election night.【2view0】
Taken together, Americans largely did remain calm, with some protests and a few localized disturbances but no broad wave of violent or disruptive action in the immediate aftermath. That aligns well with Chamath’s prediction that there wouldn’t be “a lot of action” and that most people would sit tight while officials did their jobs, so the prediction is best judged as right overall, despite some limited counterexamples.