Chamath @ 01:04:18Right
politics
E predicts conditionally that if Joe Biden’s net margin out of Philadelphia exceeds roughly 350,000 votes, that margin will be sufficient for Biden to win Pennsylvania in the 2020 election.
if there are in fact, three. No, I think that the exact math is about 350,000 votes that show up in Philadelphia, a gap of Above 350,000 votes that show up in Philly. Um, Biden will, uh, do what he needs to do.View on YouTube
Explanation
Evaluation of the conditional prediction
- Chamath’s condition: If Joe Biden’s net margin (“gap”) out of Philadelphia is above roughly 350,000 votes, that will be enough for Biden to win Pennsylvania.
- Actual 2020 result in the City/County of Philadelphia: Biden received 603,790 votes; his net margin over Trump in the city was 471,050 votes. (inquirer.com)
- 471,050 > 350,000, so the stated condition (a gap above ~350k in Philly) was satisfied.
- Statewide result: Pennsylvania’s certified tally shows Biden with 3,458,229 votes and Trump with 3,377,674, a Biden margin of 80,555 votes, meaning Biden did win Pennsylvania. (inquirer.com)
Because the condition (Philly margin > ~350k) occurred and the predicted outcome (Biden wins Pennsylvania) also occurred, the conditional prediction is correct.