Donald Trump did lose the 2020 election to Joe Biden, so the condition for the prediction was met. However, after that loss:

1. He did not resign before the end of his term. Trump served out his first term through January 20, 2021, delivering a standard farewell address on January 19 and leaving office when Biden was inaugurated, with no resignation or handoff of power to Mike Pence for purposes of a pardon deal. Sources: coverage of Trump’s January 19, 2021 farewell address and timelines of the end of his first administration. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. He did not secure broad preemptive pardons for himself or his family. Despite extensive speculation that he might issue self‑pardons or blanket pardons for his adult children and son‑in‑law, his final clemency list on January 20, 2021—143 pardons and commutations—did not include Trump himself, any of his children, Jared Kushner, or Rudy Giuliani. Multiple contemporaneous reports explicitly note that he “didn’t pardon his family” and “did not issue a preemptive pardon for himself,” and published lists of recipients likewise show no Trump family members. Sources: reporting on Trump’s final-day clemency (Forbes, Guardian, Snopes, Newsweek) and official recipient lists. (forbes.com)

Because Trump neither resigned nor arranged sweeping self/family pardons before leaving office, the specific scenario Jason rated as ~50% likely did not occur. The prediction therefore counts as wrong in outcome terms, even though it was framed probabilistically.