What actually happened in the Nov. 3, 2020 U.S. presidential election

• Joe Biden defeated incumbent President Donald Trump with 306 electoral votes to 232.
• Biden won the popular vote with about 51.3% to Trump’s 46.8%, a margin of roughly 7 million votes.

These figures are documented in official tallies and widely cited summaries of the 2020 election results. (cfr.org)

Was Biden’s win a “landslide”?

Multiple nonpartisan fact‑checking and analysis outlets explicitly concluded that Biden’s victory, while clear and decisive, does not qualify as a landslide by common historical standards:

• PolitiFact: Biden’s win “wasn’t a landslide, but it was decisive,” noting that 306 electoral votes and his popular‑vote margin are solid but not historically large. (politifact.com)
• FactCheck.org similarly found that neither Trump’s 2016 win nor Biden’s 2020 win at the 306–232 level counts as a landslide by customary measures, placing such results well below classic landslides in U.S. history. (factcheck.org)
• Political science and historical discussions typically reserve the term landslide for elections with overwhelming electoral and/or popular‑vote margins (e.g., Johnson 1964, Nixon 1972, Reagan 1984), far exceeding Biden’s 2020 margin. (presidency.ucsb.edu)

Evaluation of the prediction

Jason’s prediction had two key components:

1. Trump will lose to Biden.

   • This was correct: Trump did lose, and Biden won both the Electoral College and the popular vote. (cfr.org)

2. The result will be a landslide.

   • By widely used historical and analytical standards, Biden’s 2020 margin is decisive but not a landslide; expert analyses explicitly reject calling it a landslide. (politifact.com)

Because the prediction specifically claimed a landslide (not just a clear win), and that core qualitative part did not occur by prevailing definitions and expert assessments, the overall prediction is best scored as wrong rather than fully correct, even though it correctly anticipated the winner.