Macroeconomic performance (2021)

• U.S. real GDP grew 5.7% in 2021 after contracting 3.4% in 2020, a sharp rebound and clearly above the ~2% pre‑COVID trend, with broad-based strength in consumption and investment. (bea.gov)
  → This strongly supports Chamath’s claim of being “super bullish on the economy.”

Technology / markets in 2021

• The S&P 500 returned 28.71% in 2021, well above its long‑run average. (slickcharts.com)
• The tech‑heavy Nasdaq‑100 returned 26.63% in 2021, also a very strong year, following an even bigger gain in 2020. (slickcharts.com)
  → The U.S. equity market and especially large‑cap tech performed very strongly in 2021, consistent with being “super bullish on tech.”

U.S. political situation vs. 2020
Evidence that 2021 was not clearly an improvement:

• On January 6, 2021, a pro‑Trump mob attacked the U.S. Capitol in an effort to overturn the 2020 election, in what has been described as the most severe assault on the building since 1814 and part of a broader attempt to subvert the election result. (en.wikipedia.org)
• The attack led to a second impeachment of Donald Trump and deepened partisan conflict over election legitimacy and investigations into the riot, signaling ongoing or even heightened dysfunction. (en.wikipedia.org)

Evidence that 2021 could be seen as relatively more stable than 2020:

• 2020 featured the peak of nationwide racial‑justice protests after George Floyd’s murder (the largest protest movement in modern U.S. history), widespread COVID‑19 lockdown protests, and intense, sustained election‑related demonstrations beginning in November 2020. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Some forms of mass street unrest and COVID‑related protest activity diminished after early 2021, and by mid‑2021 the political environment lacked the same continuous, overlapping crises (pandemic onset, first impeachment, summer unrest, election‑week uncertainty) that defined much of 2020.

Why the verdict is ambiguous

• The economic and tech‑market parts of the prediction are clearly correct on the data: 2021 saw a strong, above‑trend macro rebound and very strong equity/tech returns. (bea.gov)
• The political part—that the U.S. political situation would improve relative to 2020—is a subjective judgment. One can reasonably argue either that:
  • January 6 and its aftermath show greater instability, or
  • the overall year 2021, after the transfer of power, had less continuous turmoil than 2020 despite the early‑year crisis.

Because the political component of the prediction depends on a normative comparison that reasonable observers can disagree on, while the economic/tech components were clearly borne out, the overall assessment of the combined prediction is ambiguous rather than clearly right or wrong.