Summary
Available macro data show that the extremely loose-money, high‑velocity capital environment of late 2020 not only persisted but accelerated through 2021, with record levels of dealmaking, venture funding, SPAC issuance and cross‑border flows, all underpinned by near‑zero interest rates. Market behavior around and after the November 2020 U.S. election is consistent with a “floodgate” of risk‑on capital rather than a pause.

Key evidence

1. Near‑zero rates and easy money persisted through 2021

   • The effective federal funds rate averaged about 0.08% in 2021, after being slashed to a 0–0.25% target range in March 2020 and held there until rate hikes began in early 2022. (m.macrotrends.net)
   • The Fed also maintained large‑scale asset purchases in 2021, keeping financing conditions historically loose.

2. Record global M&A and corporate dealmaking in 2021

   • Global M&A volumes in 2021 hit roughly $5.8–5.9 trillion, the highest on record and about 60+% above 2020, explicitly attributed by analysts to cheap, widely available financing and booming equity markets. (euronews.com)
   • The U.S. accounted for nearly half of this, with U.S. M&A value nearly doubling versus 2020. (techstartups.com)

3. Venture capital and private markets saw an unprecedented surge in 2021

   • Global VC investment jumped from about $347B in 2020 to roughly $671B in 2021, a record year, with deal sizes and valuations rising sharply across all regions. (businesswire.com)
   • Crunchbase data show the first half of 2021 alone set new records, with ~$288B invested, surpassing the previous half‑year record just set in H2 2020—evidence of both continuation and acceleration of capital flows. (news.crunchbase.com)

4. SPACs and speculative capital flows peaked in 2021

   • SPAC statistics show 613 SPAC IPOs in 2021 raising about $162B, dramatically above 2020’s ~250 SPACs raising ~$83B, and far beyond any pre‑COVID year—clear evidence of “easy” speculative capital deployment. (en.wikipedia.org)

5. Cross‑border and FDI capital flows rebounded strongly in 2021

   • Cross‑regional commercial real estate capital flows between North America, Europe and APAC in H2 2021 rose about 60% year‑over‑year to a near‑record $77.5B, after being flat in H2 2020, with reports explicitly describing “robust” global capital flows in 2021. (cbre.com)
   • UNCTAD notes global FDI flows in 2021 rebounded sharply from 2020, more than doubling into developed economies, with U.S. inflows more than doubling on the back of cross‑border M&A. (unctad.org)

6. Election period behavior is consistent with a post‑election “floodgate” of risk‑on capital

   • U.S. equities staged a powerful rally from Election Day through November 2020; November was one of the strongest months for U.S. stocks in nearly a century, with the Dow up ~12% and small‑cap Russell 2000 up over 16%, supported by investor optimism as the election outcome and transition became clearer. (washingtonpost.com)
   • This rally, combined with the subsequent record‑setting 2021 risk‑asset and deal activity under a Biden administration, supports Friedberg’s claim that capital flows would keep surging after the election rather than stall, and that this was not contingent on a specific party winning.

Assessment vs. the prediction

Claim: The late‑2020 environment of huge, fast capital flows driven by ultra‑low rates would continue into 2021 and see another “floodgate” of capital movement around/after the November 2020 election, regardless of which side won.

Outcome:
– Interest rates remained near zero in 2021, and quantitative easing persisted.
– Multiple measures of capital flow velocity and volume (M&A volume, VC funding, SPAC issuance, cross‑border real‑estate and FDI flows) show record or near‑record highs in 2021, significantly above 2020 levels.
– Markets rallied strongly around and after the election and continued into 2021 as the recovery, vaccine news, and policy clarity combined with easy money.

Given this, the core directional prediction—that the capital‑flow mania of late 2020 would not stop in 2021 and would be further unleashed after the election—was borne out by subsequent data. Thus the prediction is best classified as right.