Assessment of the prediction
Chamath’s core claim was that soon after the November 2020 election U.S. political discourse would become more civil, and that Joe Biden’s election would play a major role in that improvement by changing what behaviors are rewarded.

The empirical record for the 1–2 years after the 2020 election points the other way:

1. Public perception of civility and division worsened under Biden’s first year.

   • A February 2022 Georgetown University “Battleground Civility Poll” found that 43% of voters said politics was less civil since Biden took office, only 29% said more civil, and 27% said about the same. The poll summary notes that a majority of voters think politics has gotten less civil overall and explicitly says that, despite Biden’s rhetoric about civility, “most voters (60%) think politics has been less civil.” (politics.georgetown.edu)
   • A November 2021 Monmouth University poll found about half of Americans (49%) felt the country had become more divided since Biden took office, only 12% thought it had become more united, and 38% saw no change. While this was somewhat better than peak division under Trump, it still indicates a net move toward greater division, not a return to civility. (monmouth.edu)

2. Political threats and intimidation continued to surge after the 2020 election.

   • An analysis from the Carnegie Endowment documents that threats against members of Congress rose dramatically, from 902 in 2016 to about 9,600 by 2021—more than a tenfold increase, with 8,613 threats already in 2020 and another spike in 2021. (carnegieendowment.org)
   • U.S. Capitol Police data summarized by PolitiFact similarly shows threats against lawmakers increasing every year through 2021, reaching 9,625 cases that year—again about ten times the 2016 level. (politifact.com)
   • Research on political violence reports roughly 300 acts of political violence from the January 6 attack through the 2024 election, the largest surge since the 1970s, with violence during the 2024 cycle at its highest since that era. (en.wikipedia.org)
     These trends show an environment of escalating intimidation and violence, not one in which civility was “found” shortly after Biden’s election.

3. The immediate post‑election period was especially uncivil.

   • After Biden’s victory, there were widespread attempts to overturn the election, accompanied by menacing threats against election officials and their families in multiple states, sometimes including explicit death threats. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • This culminated in the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, a highly visible breakdown of peaceful, civil politics that occurred in the exact “near term” window following the election.

Conclusion
Although Biden was elected (a part of Chamath’s expectation), the key part of the prediction—that his election would quickly usher in a more civil political discourse and substantially improve what behaviors are rewarded—does not match subsequent data and events. Surveys show most Americans perceived politics as less civil and more divided in the early Biden years, while threats and political violence rose sharply. That evidence makes the overall prediction wrong.