Joe Biden won the 2020 U.S. presidential election, securing both the popular vote and a majority in the Electoral College, and was inaugurated as President on January 20, 2021. This confirms that, in hindsight, the candidate Chamath said was more likely to win (Biden) did in fact win, so the probabilistic prediction that “Biden is the favorite” was directionally correct.

Sources:

• Official 2020 election results and summaries from major outlets confirming Biden’s victory over Trump.