Chamath @ 00:28:36Wrong
economy
In the United States, short‑term interest rates (the Federal Funds rate) will remain effectively at zero (near the lower bound) for approximately a full decade starting from 2020, i.e., through roughly 2030, with no meaningful rate hikes during that period.
they basically said we're keeping rates where they are until at least 20, 23. You know, my personal view is if rates are going to stay basically at zero for the next half decade. And I think it's probably pretty likely that we're going to see rates stay at zero, probably a full decade.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction was that U.S. short‑term interest rates (the federal funds rate) would stay “basically at zero… probably a full decade” starting around 2020, implying no meaningful rate hikes through roughly 2030.
What actually happened:
- The effective federal funds rate was near zero through 2020–2021 (0.08% at end‑2021).(ycharts.com)
- Beginning in March 2022, the Federal Reserve started a rapid hiking cycle, raising the target range in multiple steps from 0–0.25% to 5.25–5.50% by July 2023.(synfun.com)
- The effective rate correspondingly rose to around 5.0–5.3% in 2023 and remained above 4% in 2024–2025.(ycharts.com)
These are large, sustained hikes—far from “basically at zero”—and they occurred within two years of the prediction, with the rate remaining elevated several years later. Even though the full decade has not yet elapsed, the condition of staying at zero with no meaningful hikes has already been decisively violated.
Therefore, the prediction is wrong.