Overall, Jason Calacanis’s scenario did not materialize, mainly because COVID deaths were far higher and the pandemic was clearly worsening by the debates.

1. Daily U.S. COVID deaths at the debates

• First debate (Sept 29, 2020): U.S. reported 879 COVID deaths that day (total deaths 205,052 → 205,931).
• Around the second debate (Oct 22, 2020): U.S. reported 880 deaths that day (total deaths 221,662 → 222,542), with surrounding days commonly in the 800–1,100 range. (indexmundi.com)
• Independent fact‑checks using Johns Hopkins/COVID Tracking Project data show the 7‑day average of daily deaths rose from about 695 on Oct 7 to 757 on Oct 21, i.e., roughly ~700–800 deaths/day, not the 200–400/day Calacanis envisioned. (politifact.com)
  → The core quantitative claim ("well under 600–700," ~400 then ~200 deaths/day, "deaths at an all‑time low") was clearly wrong.

2. Pandemic trajectory and Trump’s ability to “credibly” say he’d solved COVID

• By late October, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were all rising again, with national case counts climbing back toward (and then beyond) prior peaks. (politifact.com)
• At the Oct 22 debate, Trump repeatedly said the U.S. was “rounding the turn/corner” on coronavirus; major fact‑checkers (AP, PolitiFact, FactCheck.org) rated this false, citing those rising trends. (politifact.com)
  → Given the objective data and contemporaneous fact‑checks, the idea that he could credibly claim to have “solved” COVID by the debates was not borne out.

3. Schools in October 2020

• Burbio’s School Opening Tracker shows that for the week of Oct 4, 2020, about 28.8% of U.S. K‑12 students were in districts offering traditional in‑person school and 21.3% in hybrid, while 49.8% were still in virtual‑only districts. (about.burbio.com)
• By Oct 21 (just before Election Day), over 60% of students were in districts offering some in‑person option (35.7% traditional + 26.5% hybrid), with 37.8% still virtual‑only. (prweb.com)
  → This part of the prediction (“our kids are back in school in October”) was partly right: many—but far from all—students had returned to at least some in‑person schooling.

4. Vaccine announcements and rapid testing

• The Abbott BinaxNOW rapid antigen test (a “high‑speed testing” card giving results in ~15 minutes) received FDA emergency authorization on Aug 26, 2020, with plans to ramp production to tens of millions of tests per month and a 150‑million test purchase by the U.S. government. (prnewswire.com)
• However, the first credible Phase 3 vaccine efficacy announcements came after the debates: Pfizer‑BioNTech reported >90% efficacy on Nov 9, 2020, Moderna reported ~94.5% on Nov 16, and Pfizer’s EUA was not issued until Dec 11, 2020. (announce.today)
  → The “high‑speed testing machines” portion was broadly correct; a truly “credible vaccine announcement” in the sense of late‑stage efficacy data did not arrive until weeks after the debates.

5. Stock market and broader economy

• The stock market was indeed near record levels: the S&P 500 hit a then‑record 3,580.84 on Sept 2, 2020, and was still close to that level in late October. (de.wikipedia.org)
• The economy had a record 33.1% annualized GDP rebound in Q3 2020, but overall output remained below late‑2019 levels, and unemployment was 7.9% in September 2020, more than double the pre‑pandemic rate (3.5% in Feb). (justthenews.com)
  → “Stock market near an all‑time high” was largely right; “economy at an all‑time high” was an exaggeration, given persistent unemployment and incomplete recovery.

Bottom line The central pillars of Calacanis’s forecast—very low daily deaths (200–400/day), COVID “solved” or at an all‑time low, enabling a credibly triumphant Trump narrative at the debates—did not occur. While some auxiliary elements (partial school reopening, strong markets, emergence of rapid tests) were directionally correct, the main quantitative and qualitative claims about the pandemic’s status by late September–October 2020 were clearly wrong.