Context of the prediction

Chamath said on July 31, 2020 that once policymakers decide what to do on enhanced unemployment, it would take 4–8 weeks for state systems to re‑implement and restart those payments.

The relevant 2020 "decision" matching the user’s normalization is the Continued Assistance for Unemployed Workers Act, signed into law on December 27, 2020, which extended PUA/PEUC and reinstated Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) at $300/week.(nga.org) The U.S. Department of Labor guidance specified that states had to pay the $300 FPUC supplement for weeks of unemployment beginning after December 26, 2020, with the first payable week ending January 2 or 3, 2021, depending on the state’s benefit week.(dol.gov)

What actually happened in the states

Evidence shows that many states restarted the $300 top‑up in about 1–2 weeks, not 4–8 weeks:

• A union summary and CNBC report from January 5, 2021 list more than 20 states (e.g., Alabama, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia) as already issuing or processing the new $300/week enhancement that week—i.e., within 9 days of the law being signed.(afacwa.org)
• Delaware explicitly states that it began paying the extra $300 on January 4, 2021, the first week the benefit could be paid, for weeks ending January 2 onward.(labor.delaware.gov)
• Mississippi’s UI agency announced on January 8, 2021 that it had already begun paying the $300 FPUC supplement for the week ending January 2, 2021.(mdes.ms.gov)
• South Dakota reports it began paying the additional $300 weekly FPUC effective week ending Jan. 2, again implying implementation in roughly one week.(drgnews.com)
• Illinois’ employment department likewise notes it began paying the $300 FPUC benefit beginning January 4, 2021, covering weeks ending January 2.(wifr.com)

More generally, CNBC notes that after the CARES Act’s original $600 FPUC in March 2020, it took about a month for all 50 states and D.C. to administer the enhancement, and that for the December 2020 extension, experts expected the majority of states to have the new $300 payments out by mid‑January 2021—again, about 2–3 weeks from enactment.(cnbc.com)

States that were slower

Some states did experience longer lags for certain programs and claimant groups:

• Nebraska’s labor department said on January 13, 2021 that it anticipated all amended CARES Act programs (PUA, PEUC, FPUC, MEUC) would be fully implemented in approximately four‑to‑six weeks.(dol.nebraska.gov)
• Trackers in January 2021 showed states like Kansas still not paying the new $300 FPUC as of mid‑January while they updated systems, implying delays closer to several weeks.(savingtoinvest.com)

However, these slower implementations were the exception, not the norm, and even they tend to cluster around the lower end of Chamath’s 4–8 week window.

Assessment vs. the prediction

Chamath’s prediction was that, once the federal decision was made, it would take 4–8 weeks for state agencies to technically implement and restart the enhanced unemployment payments.

What actually occurred after the December 27, 2020 law:

• A large number of states resumed or began issuing the $300 supplemental payments within about 1–2 weeks (by January 4–8, 2021).
• Experts and contemporaneous reporting expected and observed that the majority of states would be paying by mid‑January, i.e., within 2–3 weeks of enactment, not 4–8 weeks.(cnbc.com)
• Only some states and some sub‑programs (like full PUA/PEUC extensions) took on the order of 4–6 weeks to fully implement, and 8‑week delays were not typical.

Because the prediction was framed as a general statement about how long it would take to re‑implement unemployment insurance once the decision was made, and the dominant empirical pattern across states was implementation in sub‑4‑week timeframes, his 4–8 week forecast substantially overstated the actual delay.

Conclusion

Overall, the real‑world rollout of the 2020 federal UI extension shows that most states restarted the enhanced payments in roughly 1–3 weeks, not 4–8 weeks, with only a minority hitting the lower half of his forecasted range and virtually none clustered around eight weeks. On that basis, the prediction is best classified as wrong.