Chamath @ 01:28:06Right
politicsgovernment
Chamath predicts that the 2020 U.S. presidential election outcome will be decisively resolved in the Electoral College, without a Bush v. Gore–style recount or “hanging chad” controversy, and that the margin will not be razor-thin in electoral votes.
I do not think there will be a hanging Chad issue in this election. This is going to be one way or the other, incredibly decisive on an electoral college level.View on YouTube
Explanation
Summary of prediction
Chamath predicted that the 2020 U.S. presidential election would:
- Be clearly decided in the Electoral College rather than hinge on a Bush v. Gore–style recount / “hanging chad” controversy.
- Not be razor-thin in electoral votes, but instead be “incredibly decisive on an electoral college level.”
What actually happened
- In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won 306 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 232, a margin of 74 electoral votes.
- While there were numerous legal challenges and disputes, they did not produce a Bush v. Gore–style single-state recount crisis, nor was the outcome contingent on a tiny number of disputed ballots in one state. The result was certified across all states, and the Electoral College vote on December 14, 2020, confirmed Biden’s 306–232 victory.
Assessment vs. prediction
- “No hanging chad issue” / no Bush v. Gore–style crisis: Correct. There was litigation and controversy, but no equivalent of the 2000 Florida recount hinging on punch-card ballots and a tiny margin.
- “Incredibly decisive on an electoral college level”: Also broadly correct. A 306–232 result is a comfortable Electoral College margin and not razor-thin.
Conclusion
Given that the election was clearly resolved in the Electoral College without a razor-thin margin or a decisive single-state recount crisis, Chamath’s prediction is right.