ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
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Chamath @ 01:10:07Wrong
politicsgovernment
Chamath predicts that, in the specific 2020 antitrust cycle and related congressional scrutiny under discussion, Amazon will emerge without being broken up or meaningfully sanctioned (“unscathed”) in the near term (through the aftermath of these hearings).
In terms of Amazon, I think they're going to get away unscathed.View on YouTube
Explanation

Assessment
Chamath’s claim was that, in the 2020 Big Tech antitrust cycle and its aftermath, “In terms of Amazon, I think they’re going to get away unscathed”—i.e., Amazon would avoid being broken up and avoid any meaningful sanctions arising from that wave of scrutiny.

What actually happened (2020–2025)

  1. Major antitrust fines and remedies in Europe

    • In December 2021, Italy’s competition authority (AGCM) fined Amazon €1.128 billion for abusing its dominant position in e‑commerce logistics (tying marketplace advantages to Fulfilment by Amazon) and imposed behavioral remedies overseen by a monitoring trustee. (en.agcm.it)
    • In September 2025, an Italian court cut the fine amount but upheld the core abuse‑of‑dominance findings, still leaving Amazon facing a very large penalty (around €750 million after removing a 50% surcharge). (reuters.com)

  2. Record EU data‑protection fine, upheld in 2025

    • In July 2021, Luxembourg’s data protection authority (CNPD) hit Amazon with a €746 million (≈$800+ million) GDPR fine over unlawful personal‑data processing for targeted advertising. (cnbc.com)
    • On 18 March 2025, Luxembourg’s administrative court rejected Amazon’s appeal and confirmed the fine and corrective measures, meaning Amazon must comply with the sanctions (subject only to any further appeal). (cnpd.public.lu)

  3. Large U.S. enforcement actions, including antitrust

    • In September 2023, the FTC and 17 U.S. states filed a sweeping antitrust lawsuit accusing Amazon of illegally maintaining monopoly power in online retail and seeking injunctive and potentially structural relief to “pry loose Amazon’s monopolistic control.” The case is ongoing, but it is a central, high‑stakes antitrust action emerging from the same policy cycle that followed the 2020 House investigation. (ftc.gov)
    • Separately, in 2025 Amazon agreed to a $2.5 billion settlement with the FTC over “deceptive” Prime enrollment and cancellation practices, including a $1 billion civil penalty (the largest in FTC history) and $1.5 billion in refunds, plus mandated changes to its subscription and cancellation flows. (washingtonpost.com)

  4. Context from the 2020 U.S. antitrust cycle

    • The 2020 House Judiciary antitrust investigation concluded that Amazon and other tech giants wield “monopoly power” and recommended structural separations and tougher antitrust enforcement, setting the stage for later actions even though Congress did not immediately break up Amazon. (cnbc.com)

Conclusion
Amazon has not been broken up, but across 2021–2025 it has faced:

  • Multiple record‑scale fines (Italy antitrust, EU GDPR), each in the hundreds of millions to over a billion euros, plus ongoing behavioral obligations; and
  • A landmark U.S. antitrust case seeking structural remedies, as well as a $2.5 billion FTC settlement with significant mandated practice changes.

These are substantial, high‑profile sanctions and regulatory constraints by any normal standard. Describing Amazon as having emerged from this antitrust and regulatory cycle “unscathed” or “without meaningful sanctions” is therefore inconsistent with what actually happened.

Result: "wrong"