Chamath’s prediction has largely played out as stated.

1. Context at the time of the prediction (mid‑2020)
   When he spoke on July 31, 2020, Amazon had not yet faced a large, headline federal monopolization case in the U.S., unlike Google and (soon after) Facebook/Meta. The U.S. DOJ filed a major Sherman Act monopolization suit against Google in October 2020 over search and search advertising, and the FTC plus 46 states filed an antitrust case against Facebook (now Meta) in December 2020 over social‑networking monopoly power and the Instagram/WhatsApp acquisitions.(en.wikipedia.org) That matches his premise that the main antitrust lens at the time was focused on Google and Facebook, not yet on Amazon.

2. Escalating U.S. antitrust actions against Amazon (2021–2025)

   • In May 2021, the Washington, D.C. attorney general filed an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon alleging that Amazon illegally used and maintained monopoly power in online retail by imposing “most favored nation” style pricing restrictions on third‑party sellers, which allegedly inflated prices across the online market.(oag.dc.gov) This was an early formal move to treat Amazon as a dominant platform harming competition.
   • On September 26, 2023, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, joined by 17 state attorneys general, filed a landmark antitrust lawsuit against Amazon. The complaint accuses Amazon of illegally maintaining monopoly power in both the “online superstore” market for consumers and the market for marketplace services to sellers, using punitive and coercive tactics (including steering rules and tying logistics services) to exclude rivals and entrench its dominance. FTC Chair Lina Khan explicitly described Amazon as “a monopolist” exploiting its monopolies and framed the case as a major effort to restore competition.(cnbc.com) This is widely characterized as a landmark Big Tech antitrust case.
   • In parallel, private and state actions have also advanced, including a large nationwide consumer antitrust class action over Amazon’s pricing and marketplace policies, certified in 2025, which alleges Amazon used its platform power to inflate prices through restrictions on third‑party sellers.(reuters.com)
   • Separately, the FTC has brought multiple additional cases and enforcement actions against Amazon (for example, over Prime “dark patterns,” resulting in a record civil penalty settlement in 2025), underscoring that Amazon is now a central focus of the agency’s tech‑platform enforcement strategy.(ft.com)

3. Comparison to how regulators treat Google and Meta
   Google and Meta remain under aggressive U.S. antitrust scrutiny: DOJ monopolization suits against Google over search and digital advertising, with a 2024 ruling that Google violated Section 2 in search; and the FTC’s ongoing monopolization case against Meta over its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, which went to trial in 2025.(en.wikipedia.org) The FTC/AGs Amazon monopolization case is structurally and rhetorically similar—a large, multi‑sovereign lawsuit accusing a dominant Big Tech platform of unlawful tactics to acquire and maintain monopoly power and seeking structural or behavioral remedies. Media and legal commentary commonly group Amazon with Google and Meta as core Big Tech antitrust targets.

4. Timing versus the prediction window
   Chamath predicted that “within 5 or 10 years” Amazon would be viewed through the same antitrust lens as Facebook and Google. The key FTC + 17‑state monopolization suit arrived in 2023, roughly 3 years after his July 2020 statement—well inside his 5–10 year window. By that point, Amazon clearly became a primary target of U.S. antitrust enforcement, comparable to Google and Meta in regulatory focus.

Given that (a) Amazon was indeed not under a comparable federal monopolization case at the time he spoke, and (b) within a few years U.S. regulators brought a major, headline monopolization suit and a cluster of related cases that place Amazon squarely in the same Big Tech antitrust crosshairs as Google and Meta, the prediction is best judged as right.