Jason @ 01:29:48Wrong
politicsgovernment
Jason assigns a 5% probability that Donald Trump will drop out of the 2020 presidential race before the election, in exchange for an implicit or explicit deal not to prosecute him after leaving office.
I think he might drop out. I think I'm putting it out there. I think there's a 5% chance he doesn't want to be demolished. And he says, you know what? I'll take the deal. You agree to not prosecute me getting out of here? Uh, I'll take it.View on YouTube
Explanation
What was predicted
Jason speculated that there was a 5% chance that Donald Trump would drop out of the 2020 presidential race before the election in exchange for some kind of implicit or explicit deal not to prosecute him after leaving office.
What actually happened
- Donald Trump remained the Republican nominee through Election Day (November 3, 2020) and did not drop out of the race.
- He served out his term until January 20, 2021, when Joe Biden was inaugurated.
- There is no evidence of any public or reported private deal in which Trump agreed to drop out of the race in exchange for non-prosecution; instead, after leaving office he has faced multiple civil and criminal investigations and prosecutions at federal and state levels, which directly contradicts the idea of a non‑prosecution deal.
Because the event described in the prediction (dropping out in a non‑prosecution deal) did not occur, the prediction about that scenario coming to pass is wrong, even though Jason only assigned it a low probability (5%).