Evidence strongly supports both parts of Friedberg’s prediction: (1) that COVID‑19 vaccination in the U.S. would become highly politicized, and (2) that a substantial share of Americans would refuse or fail to get vaccinated, with persistent non‑uptake similar in spirit to measles.

1. Politicization of the COVID‑19 vaccine

Multiple surveys and analyses show that political identity became one of the strongest predictors of COVID‑19 vaccine attitudes and behavior:

• A 2021 Pew Research Center analysis found large partisan gaps in vaccination: by August 2021, 86% of Democrats (and Democratic leaners) reported at least one dose vs. only about 60% of Republicans and Republican leaners, reflecting clear politicization of uptake. (pewresearch.org)
• A Gallup review identifies partisanship as “one of the most significant correlates of vaccine hesitancy,” with 46% of Republicans saying they would not get the vaccine, vs. just 6% of Democrats. (news.gallup.com)
• A 2023 Pew study shows Democrats were roughly twice as likely as Republicans to say the benefits of COVID‑19 vaccines outweigh the risks (84% vs. 40%), and that one‑third of Republicans said they did not get a COVID‑19 vaccine, compared with 9% of Democrats. (pewresearch.org)
• By 2024–2025, Pew and other reporting explicitly describe vaccines—especially updated COVID shots and even routine childhood vaccines—as sharply polarized by party, with large Republican majorities saying they will skip updated COVID shots and support for mandates dropping sharply among Republicans. (pewresearch.org)

This pattern shows that vaccination behavior and attitudes became deeply intertwined with partisan identity, matching Friedberg’s forecast that the vaccine would be heavily politicized.

2. A significant portion of Americans refused or failed to get vaccinated

Friedberg’s normalized prediction says that because of this politicization, the U.S. would not achieve near‑universal uptake; instead, a meaningful minority would remain unvaccinated, akin to persistent non‑vaccination seen with measles.

COVID‑19 primary series / any dose:

• CDC data show that by late 2022, after broad availability and extensive campaigns, about 80.5% of the total U.S. population had received at least one COVID‑19 dose and about 68.8% had completed a primary series. That means roughly 19–31% of the population remained either completely unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated, even after ample time and supply. (archive.cdc.gov)
• National Health Interview Survey data for 2022 show 79.7% of U.S. adults had received at least one dose, implying around 20% of adults had never gotten any COVID‑19 vaccine. (cdc.gov)
• A 2023 Pew survey found 13% of U.S. adults saying they had not received a COVID‑19 vaccine at all, with much higher non‑vaccination among younger adults (24% of 18–29‑year‑olds). (pewresearch.org) These are non‑trivial, persistent pockets of refusal or non‑uptake.

Updated/booster doses:

• As the pandemic progressed, refusal to stay current became even more pronounced. In 2024, Pew found only 28% of U.S. adults reported getting the then‑updated COVID vaccine, meaning over 70% had not. (pewresearch.org)
• For the 2024–25 season, Pew reported that about 60% of Americans said they probably would not get an updated COVID‑19 vaccine, with 81% of Republicans saying they planned to skip it—again showing large, durable gaps in uptake. (pewresearch.org)

Analogy to measles non‑vaccination:

Friedberg compared COVID to measles, where a small but persistent unvaccinated minority creates ongoing vulnerability.

• CDC‑linked reporting shows that U.S. MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) coverage among kindergarteners has fallen from about 95.2% in 2019–2020 to around 92.5–92.7% in recent school years, below the ~95% herd‑immunity target and associated with rising measles outbreaks; exemptions and unvaccinated clusters drive these outbreaks. (reuters.com)

While exact percentages differ (COVID coverage never approached childhood MMR’s previous 95%+ levels, and booster coverage is much lower), the pattern Friedberg described—ongoing substantial non‑vaccination, enough to sustain disease risk—clearly materialized for COVID as well. A sizeable minority, strongly concentrated along political lines, has consistently refused or failed to get initial shots and especially boosters.

Conclusion

By late 2022 and through 2024–2025, COVID‑19 vaccination in the U.S. was heavily politicized, and a meaningful share of Americans either never got vaccinated or stopped staying up to date, mirroring the kind of persistent non‑vaccination problem seen with measles (though at different absolute levels). Given the data on partisan polarization and enduring non‑uptake, Friedberg’s prediction is best categorized as right.