Evidence suggests that the U.S. largely “got out of” the COVID‑19 recession within roughly the 2–3 year window David Sacks predicted.

GDP and overall activity

• NBER dates the recession trough to April 2020; the economy was in expansion thereafter.(nber.org)
• Real GDP surpassed its pre‑recession peak by Q1 2021—less than a year after the trough—and later exceeded CBO’s pre‑pandemic projections, indicating a very rapid recovery.(cbpp.org)
• Treasury analysis shows U.S. real GDP more than 5% above its 2019 level by 2023, though still with some shortfall vs. pre‑COVID trend, i.e., essentially recovered but still normalizing.(home.treasury.gov)

Jobs and unemployment

• The U.S. regained all ~22 million nonfarm jobs lost in early 2020 by June 2022—about 26 months after the April 2020 employment trough, within the 2–3 year window he gave.(floordaily.net)
• BLS reports the unemployment rate returned to its pre‑pandemic level (around 3.5–3.6%) in 2022; several labor‑market measures were back at or near pre‑COVID norms by then, even though labor‑force participation remained somewhat lower.(bls.gov)

“Unless some other shoe drops” condition

• While there were negative developments (Delta/Omicron waves, supply‑chain disruptions, and high inflation), these did not produce a second, prolonged COVID‑era recession; output and employment continued to grow and eventually exceeded pre‑pandemic levels.(cbpp.org)

Putting this together: the core economic damage from the initial COVID shock was substantially repaired in about 2 years (by mid‑2022) and clearly by around 3 years out (2023) on most headline metrics. That falls squarely within Sacks’s predicted “2 to 3 year process to get out of this” in the absence of an additional major downturn, so the prediction is best judged as broadly right, if somewhat conservative given how fast GDP itself rebounded.