Assessment
Chamath’s prediction has held up as of November 29, 2025.

1. Existing main manufacturing operations did not relocate out of California

• Tesla’s Fremont Factory in California remains a major production hub, described by Tesla itself as its hub for Model S, Model 3, Model X and Model Y production. It is still one of the largest manufacturing sites in California and is actively hiring. (tesla.com)
• Production there has not been wound down; instead, Tesla has expanded activity. In 2024 the Fremont plant celebrated producing its 1,000,000th Model Y and reported installed annual capacity of ~550,000 Model 3/Y plus 100,000 S/X. (teslamagz.com)
• In 2025, Tesla was expanding 4680 cell manufacturing at Fremont, indicating ongoing investment rather than relocation away from California. (teslaoracle.com)
• While Tesla moved its corporate headquarters from Palo Alto, California, to Austin, Texas in 2021, Elon Musk explicitly stated this did not mean Tesla was leaving California and that the company intended to keep increasing output from Fremont. (cnbc.com)

Taken together, this shows Tesla did not relocate its existing core manufacturing operations out of California; Fremont remains a key factory.

2. Incremental facilities were built in other locations, driven largely by tax incentives

• After 2020, Tesla built and ramped Gigafactory Texas near Austin, a major new vehicle plant producing the Model Y and Cybertruck. (mysanantonio.com)
• To land this factory, Texas entities offered substantial tax incentive packages, matching Chamath’s rationale:
  • The Del Valle Independent School District approved a Chapter 313 property-tax limitation that effectively grants Tesla tens of millions of dollars in school-tax savings over about a decade. (dallasnews.com)
  • Travis County approved an economic development agreement rebating 70–80% of certain property taxes for up to 20 years, estimated at roughly $14–15 million in savings over the first decade. (kut.org)
• In 2025 Tesla also moved to build a new Megapack “megafactory” near Houston, Texas, under a tax abatement deal with Waller County that reduces its property taxes in exchange for large capital investment—another incentive-driven siting choice. (reuters.com)
• More broadly, Tesla has continued adding major facilities outside California—Gigafactory Berlin, further Gigafactory Texas build‑out, planned Gigafactory Mexico—while simultaneously expanding some operations inside California (e.g., the Lathrop Megafactory and a large engineering HQ in Palo Alto). (en.wikipedia.org)

Conclusion
Chamath claimed (1) it was not practical to move Tesla’s existing California manufacturing out of the state and (2) incremental facilities would instead be built elsewhere, guided heavily by tax incentives. Fremont remains a major and even expanding manufacturing site, while Tesla’s major new plants and megafactories have indeed been located in other states (and countries) using large incentive packages. That aligns closely with his prediction, so the forecast is right.