Evidence since 2020 shows that California did, in fact, experience large‑scale net out‑migration to other U.S. states, commonly described as an exodus and widely linked to high costs and taxes.

Scale of out‑migration (“in droves”)

• Census‑based summaries indicate that from roughly spring 2020 to July 2024, California lost nearly 1.5 million residents on net to other states. (californiainsider.com)
• State and Census data show very large annual domestic net losses:
  • About 692,000 people left California for other states in 2021 while fewer than 337,000 moved in, a net domestic loss of ~355,000. (governing.com)
  • For 2022, estimates show a net domestic out‑migration of around 343,000, the largest numeric loss of any state. (dailywire.com)
  • Losses have moderated but remain substantial, with net domestic outflows around 200,000–250,000 per year as of 2023–24. (dof.ca.gov)

Cumulatively, this constitutes a very large, historically unusual out‑migration over the “coming years” after May 2020, consistent with the colloquial claim that people would “leave in droves.”

Role of high costs and taxes

• Analyses of California’s recent population decline by the Public Policy Institute of California identify high housing costs as a major driver of people leaving for other states, with about one‑third of Californians saying they are considering leaving the state because of housing costs. (ppic.org)
• Reporting on the 2021–2023 population losses notes that critics of state policy explicitly tie the out‑migration to higher taxes, high cost of living, homelessness, and housing shortages under Democratic governance. (khsu.org)
• A Census‑based summary of 2021–22 migration notes that hundreds of thousands left California and cites high cost of living, housing shortage, rise of remote work, and high taxes as key motivations. (en.wikipedia.org)
• A 2025 analysis of IRS migration data by the National Taxpayers Union Foundation finds California losing taxpayers on net to lower‑tax states such as Florida and Texas and directly points to California’s high tax burden and cost of living as central factors in this wealth and taxpayer outflow. (nypost.com)

Taken together, these data show that in the years after May 2020 California experienced very large net domestic out‑migration, and widely cited explanations emphasize high housing costs, overall cost of living, and high taxes—matching the substance of Chamath Palihapitiya’s prediction.