Chamath @ 00:31:55Wrong
politics
In the November 2020 US presidential election, Donald Trump is more likely than not to win reelection, primarily driven by voter frustration over COVID-19 lockdowns; Democrats’ best chance to win would be to end lockdowns earlier than currently planned.
for what it's worth, you know, if I was I am a betting man. So I'll just tell you, you know, my line now is that I think that Donald Trump is overwhelmingly likely to win as a function of people's frustration about the lockdowns. And I think that the Democrats best hope of winning in November is ending these things sooner rather than later.View on YouTube
Explanation
Donald Trump lost the November 3, 2020 U.S. presidential election to Joe Biden, who won both the popular vote and the Electoral College. Congress certified Biden’s victory on January 6–7, 2021, and Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
Chamath framed Trump’s reelection as “overwhelmingly likely” and specifically tied that likelihood to voter frustration over COVID-19 lockdowns, implying this frustration would drive Trump to victory unless Democrats ended lockdowns early. In reality:
- Joe Biden won 306 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 232.
- Biden won the popular vote by over 7 million votes.
Given that the prediction was explicitly about the 2020 election outcome and that outcome is now known, the forecast that Trump was “overwhelmingly likely to win” is incorrect.
Therefore, the prediction must be rated as wrong.