ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E3: Modern Cold War between US & China, economic recovery, potential mass migration out of San Francisco, pandemic politicization & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 00:29:42Wrong
health
Outside of very high-density cities like New York, US cities such as Dallas, Houston, and San Diego will not experience a second COVID-19 wave with New York–style extreme daily death rates; instead they will see a prolonged, lower-level “slow burn” of new cases as the pandemic continues.
you know, you're not going to see that in Dallas. You're not going to see that in Houston. You're not going to see that in San Diego. You're going to have more of the slow, steady burn... So I wouldn't expect us to have a New York style second wave. I do expect there to continue to be this like slow burn going forward of new casesView on YouTube
Explanation

Summary
Friedberg predicted that outside very high‑density cities like New York, places such as Dallas, Houston and San Diego would not see a New York‑style second wave with extreme daily death rates, but instead a prolonged low‑level “slow burn” of cases. In reality, all three metros experienced clearly defined, severe waves (summer 2020 and especially winter 2020–21) with sharp spikes in deaths and hospital strain—i.e., surges rather than a mere slow burn—although their per‑capita peaks did remain below New York City’s first‑wave extremes. Overall, the core dynamic he forecast (no big waves, just a slow burn) did not hold.

What actually happened

  1. New York City’s benchmark

    • NYC’s first wave was uniquely intense: from Feb 29–Jun 1, 2020 there were 18,679 deaths, with deaths peaking around the week of April 5 at a mean ~566 deaths per day; single‑day peaks reached roughly 600–800 deaths.(cdc.gov)
    • With a population of about 8.3 million, that corresponds to ~6–8 deaths per 100,000 residents per day at peak—an outlier even within the U.S.

  2. Dallas (Dallas County)

    • After the podcast (May 2020), Dallas had a summer 2020 wave: by mid‑July 2020 the county recorded a deadliest week with 74 deaths in one week, sharply above prior levels.(dallasnews.com)
    • A much larger winter 2020–21 wave followed: late January 2021 saw the county’s deadliest week with 183 deaths, and on Jan 27 and Feb 3, 2021 the county reported record single‑day tolls of 40 and then 50 deaths, respectively.(keranews.org)
    • With ~2.6M people in Dallas County, 50 deaths in a day is ~1.9 deaths/100k/day—well below NYC’s first‑wave per‑capita peak but still a pronounced surge, not a low‑level burn.

  3. Houston (Harris County / Texas Medical Center)

    • Harris County saw a major summer 2020 surge: by late July 2020, 109 deaths were confirmed in a single week and roughly one‑third of all county deaths to date were reported after July 10, indicating a rapid, wave‑like escalation.(communityimpact.com)
    • Earlier in that surge, the seven‑day rolling average of daily deaths more than doubled within days, again reflecting a sharp spike rather than a steady plateau.(communityimpact.com)
    • At the regional level, Houston’s Texas Medical Center reported ICU occupancy at 97% of capacity by June 24, 2020 due to COVID‑19, a hallmark of an acute wave stressing hospital systems.(en.wikipedia.org)
    • Texas as a whole went on to experience multiple high‑intensity waves, including the winter 2020–21 and Delta waves, with ICU demand exceeding 100% of capacity in many hospitals in August 2021.(en.wikipedia.org)

  4. San Diego County

    • San Diego had relatively modest early numbers, but then a large winter 2020–21 wave. On Jan 22, 2021, county officials reported a record 79 COVID‑19 deaths in a single day, breaking prior records that same month. The report notes 53 consecutive days with >1,000 cases and 25 days in 30 with >2,000 cases—classic wave dynamics.(kpbs.org)
    • With ~3.3M residents, 79 deaths in a day is ~2.4 deaths/100k/day—less than NYC’s first‑wave peak, but still a substantial, concentrated spike.

  5. Comparison with the prediction

    • Correct component: None of these metros reached per‑capita daily death rates as extreme as New York City’s early‑April 2020 peak; NYC remained an outlier in intensity.(cdc.gov)
    • Incorrect core claim: Friedberg specifically said that in cities like Dallas, Houston and San Diego, “you’re not going to see that… you’re going to have more of the slow, steady burn… I wouldn’t expect us to have a New York style second wave… just this slow burn going forward of new cases.” The actual data show pronounced, discrete waves in all three metros (summer 2020, winter 2020–21 and later), featuring rapid rises in cases and deaths, weekly and daily death records, and serious hospital strain—not merely a flat, low‑level “burn.”(dallasnews.com)

Because the central behavioral forecast—that these cities would avoid large second (and subsequent) waves and instead see only a gradual, steady burn—was contradicted by substantial, wave‑like surges in deaths and hospitalizations, this prediction is best classified as wrong overall, despite being directionally right that few places would match New York City’s uniquely extreme first‑wave death rates.