Did the condition happen? (V-shaped recovery before Nov 2020)

• After the sharp COVID-19 contraction in March–April 2020, U.S. real GDP rebounded strongly in Q3 2020, growing at a 33.4% annualized rate after a 31.4% annualized drop in Q2.
• Unemployment fell rapidly from the April 2020 peak (~14.7%) down into single digits by late summer/early fall 2020. This pattern is widely described in contemporaneous economic commentary as a partial or incomplete V-shaped recovery: a very sharp rebound, but not a full return to pre‑COVID trend, and with large sectors still depressed.
• So, whether the U.S. had a true V-shaped recovery is debated, but there clearly was a strong, V‑like rebound in headline GDP and jobs before November 2020. That means the condition in Chamath’s prediction is at least partially met in the way many commentators at the time used the term.

Did the predicted outcome happen? (Trump wins by a landslide)

• In the November 3, 2020 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden. Biden won both the national popular vote and the Electoral College: 306 electoral votes for Biden vs. 232 for Trump, and a popular vote margin of over 7 million votes. This is the opposite of Trump winning in a “landslide.”

Conclusion

Even allowing for debate over how perfectly “V-shaped” the recovery was, Trump clearly did not win re‑election, let alone in a landslide. The conditional prediction therefore failed on its stated outcome, so the prediction is wrong.