Evidence from California’s official timeline shows that statewide COVID-19 restrictions began to be relaxed earlier than mid–late May 2020, and certainly before June 1, 2020.

Key facts:

1. State announces move to Stage 2 starting May 8, 2020
   On May 4, 2020, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that California would be prepared to move into the early phase of Stage 2 of reopening on Friday, May 8, explicitly described as “modifying the stay at home order” to allow gradual reopening of lower‑risk workplaces (bookstores, clothing stores, florists, sporting goods stores, etc.) with adaptations. (gov.ca.gov)

2. Guidance issued May 7; modifications effective May 8
   A May 7, 2020 press release from the Governor’s office confirmed that updated industry guidance would “help drive reopening” for retail, manufacturing, and logistics “beginning Friday, May 8”, and reiterated that California was “moving into Stage 2” of its roadmap, in which lower‑risk workplaces could gradually open. (gov.ca.gov)

3. Further statewide easing on May 12, 2020
   On May 12, 2020, the California Department of Public Health announced additional sectors that could open statewide as part of Stage 2, including some office workspaces where telework wasn’t possible, outdoor museums, and limited personal services (e.g., car washes, dog‑grooming, landscaping). The same notice states that California moved into Stage 2 on May 8, 2020. (news.caloes.ca.gov)

4. By May 12, Newsom said ~70% of the economy could open with modifications
   Also on May 12, 2020, Newsom said that “over 70% of our economy is open with modifications” under Stage 2, indicating that the lockdown had already been significantly and meaningfully relaxed by mid‑May, not June 1. (cnbc.com)

5. Late‑May brought even broader reopening in many counties
   Through the second half of May, numerous counties obtained variances to move further into Stage 2, allowing dine‑in restaurants, more in‑store retail, and eventually hair salons/barbershops to reopen with modifications. (aalrr.com)

Comparison to the prediction

• Chamath’s normalized prediction: “In California, statewide COVID-19 lockdown orders will not be meaningfully lifted before June 1, 2020; at best they may begin to be relaxed sometime between mid-May and late May 2020.”
• Reality:
  • The statewide order was first meaningfully modified on May 8, 2020, allowing a broad set of retail, manufacturing, and logistics businesses to reopen statewide with modifications—earlier than “mid‑May to late May.” (gov.ca.gov)
  • By May 12, Newsom was publicly stating that a large majority of the economy (about 70%) could operate with modifications, which constitutes a substantial easing well before June 1. (cnbc.com)

Because the first meaningful easing of the statewide lockdown (via Stage 2 modifications) occurred around May 8–12, 2020, earlier than both June 1 and the “mid–late May” window he gave as the earliest plausible relaxation, the prediction is best judged as wrong, though it was only off by roughly a week in timing.