Summary
Chamath predicted in April 2020 that "over the next two years, we're in for a tremendous amount of difficulty"—i.e., that from roughly April 2020 to April 2022, the US would experience significant, persistent economic and social disruption from COVID-19, rather than a quick return to normal. This is broadly correct given what actually happened.

Economic disruption (2020–2022)

1. Severe recession in 2020 and uneven recovery

   • US GDP contracted sharply in Q2 2020, with annualized declines of about 31%, followed by a partial rebound later that year.
   • The NBER dated a short but extremely deep recession in early 2020; employment did not recover to pre‑pandemic levels until well into 2022, showing persistent disruption rather than a swift, clean "V" back to normal.

2. High and persistent unemployment, then labor market churn

   • Unemployment spiked to nearly 15% in April 2020. It remained elevated for many months and different sectors (travel, hospitality, in‑person services) stayed depressed for an extended period. Even as headline unemployment improved, there was prolonged labor market disruption (e.g., labor force exits, the "Great Resignation" in 2021). This indicates ongoing difficulty rather than a quick snap‑back to 2019 conditions.

3. Supply‑chain shocks and inflation (2021–2022)

   • Global and domestic supply‑chain problems, shipping bottlenecks, semiconductor shortages, and other disruptions persisted through 2021 and into 2022.
   • US inflation rose substantially in 2021–2022, reaching multi‑decade highs, in part due to pandemic‑related distortions. This materially affected real incomes and business costs, extending the economic difficulty beyond the initial 2020 shock.

Social disruption (2020–2022)

1. Extended non‑normal social conditions

   • Widespread school closures and remote learning lasted through much of the 2020–2021 academic year in many states, with knock‑on effects into 2021–2022.
   • Office work shifted massively to remote/hybrid, and many workplaces did not return to anything like “normal” operations until late 2021 or 2022, if at all.

2. Ongoing waves and restrictions

   • Multiple COVID waves (fall/winter 2020–21, Delta in 2021, Omicron in late 2021–early 2022) led to repeated cycles of public‑health measures, travel disruptions, and behavioral changes. This clearly contradicts any idea of a quick one‑time shock followed by normalcy.

3. Mental health and societal strain

   • The period saw documented increases in anxiety, depression, substance‑use issues, learning loss, and political conflicts over COVID policies, illustrating that the social disruption was prolonged and multifaceted.

Why the prediction is judged right

• Time horizon alignment: The forecast covered “over the next two years” from April 2020—roughly April 2020 to April 2022. That interval did, in fact, see:
  • Continuing health crises in multiple waves.
  • Deep labor and supply‑chain disruptions.
  • Elevated inflation and uneven employment recovery.
  • Prolonged changes to schooling, work, travel, and daily life.
• Nature of disruption: Chamath did not specify precise metrics (e.g., exact GDP or unemployment numbers) but qualitatively forecast “a tremendous amount of difficulty” and no quick reversion to normal. The actual path of the US economy and society from 2020 through early 2022 matches that qualitative description.

Given the broad, qualitative nature of the claim and the documented economic and social conditions during that period, the most reasonable assessment is that the prediction was right in substance.