What the prediction claimed (normalized)

• After the 2020 COVID shock, Apple would be pushed by policy/public pressure to:
  1. Relocate a significant portion of iPhone production away from China to the United States, or
  2. At least to a more diversified set of countries with a materially higher share in the U.S.
• Apple would accept lower margins in exchange for greater supply‑chain resiliency.

What actually happened by late 2025

1. iPhone production is still overwhelmingly in China, not in the U.S.

   • Multiple recent analyses estimate that around 80–90% of iPhones are still assembled in China, with India and other locations accounting for only the remaining 10–20%. (coincentral.com)
   • A 2025 policy analysis notes that Apple currently has “no meaningful iPhone production” in the United States and effectively 0% of iPhones for commercial sale made there, with roughly 80% of production in China and about 20% in India. (faf.ae)
   • Discussion of U.S. manufacturing repeatedly emphasizes that large‑scale iPhone production in the U.S. remains economically and logistically infeasible, not something Apple has begun doing. (forums.appleinsider.com)

2. Diversification has been to India and other Asian countries, not to the U.S., and China is still dominant.

   • Apple has been following a “China + 1” strategy: adding India (and some Vietnam) as secondary hubs while keeping China as the core manufacturing base. (archive.demodaenperu.com)
   • Apple announced and pursued plans to move a portion of iPhone 14 and later models’ production to India and has targets such as up to ~25% of iPhones from India by mid‑decade, but that still leaves the majority in China and does not materially raise the U.S. share, which remains near zero. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • In 2025 Apple’s strategy for the U.S. market is to shift U.S.-bound iPhone assembly from China to India by 2026—explicitly India, not the United States. (theguardian.com)

3. Margins went up, not down.

   • Apple’s overall gross margin has risen steadily from about 38% in FY 2019–2020 to roughly 46–47% by FY 2024–2025. (valueinvesting.io)
   • Net and operating margins likewise remained strong or improved. Apple did not accept structurally lower margins as a trade‑off for resilience; instead, it preserved or increased profitability while modestly diversifying production.

Assessment versus the normalized prediction

• Relocating a “significant portion” of iPhone production to the U.S. / materially raising the U.S. share: This clearly did not happen; U.S. iPhone manufacturing is effectively zero, and China still produces the vast majority of units. (faf.ae)
• Major diversification away from China with the U.S. as a key alternate base: Some diversification to India occurred, but China remains dominant, and the U.S. share is not materially higher—still near zero—so this condition is not met. (faf.ae)
• Accepting lower margins for resiliency: Apple’s margins increased meaningfully after 2020; they did not fall as the prediction suggested. (neyman.ai)

Because the core, testable components of the normalized prediction (substantial production relocation to or heavily involving the U.S., and lower margins as a trade‑off) did not occur by 2025, the prediction is wrong.