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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E1: US Response to COVID-19 & Impact on Startups, Venture Capital & Public Markets with David Friedberg
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Chamath @ 00:41:24Wrong
marketseconomy
Chamath predicts that even if COVID-19 is contained quickly (e.g., within ~60 days), the U.S. stock market will not experience an immediate sharp V‑shaped “roaring back” recovery to prior levels.
It cannot come roaring back.View on YouTube
Explanation

Why this prediction is evaluated as wrong

  1. What Chamath said and in what context In the March 19, 2020 episode, Jason Calacanis asks whether, if the virus is contained quickly ("in the next 60 days") and mitigation drugs work, the markets could "rebound" and whether there is "a chance it could come roaring back". Chamath responds flatly: "It cannot come roaring back" and then explains structural problems in the capital markets. (podscripts.co)

    The normalized prediction you provided – that even if COVID-19 were contained quickly, the U.S. stock market would not see an immediate sharp V‑shaped “roaring back” recovery to prior levels – accurately captures the spirit of his claim: he assigns essentially zero probability to a rapid, V‑shaped recovery in equities from the COVID crash.

  2. What actually happened to the U.S. stock market

    • The S&P 500 peaked at a then‑record close of about 3,386 on February 19, 2020, then crashed roughly 34% to a low on March 23, 2020 amid COVID fears. (spglobal.com)
    • From that March 23 low, the index launched an extremely rapid rally, gaining around 50–55% by mid‑August 2020. (benzinga.com)
    • On August 18, 2020, the S&P 500 closed at a new all‑time high (around 3,389–3,395), fully erasing all COVID‑related losses just five months after the bottom, and roughly six months after the pre‑COVID peak. Major outlets and analysts explicitly described this as one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market in history and a “furious” rally. (benzinga.com)

    That pattern – a deep but very short bear market followed by a swift surge back to (and then beyond) prior highs – is exactly what is commonly referred to as a V‑shaped, "roaring back" recovery.

  3. About the "even if contained quickly" condition The U.S. did not in fact “contain” COVID‑19 within ~60 days; cases continued to rise through spring 2020 and the pandemic persisted for years. (cdc.gov)

    However, Chamath’s emphatic statement "It cannot come roaring back" was given as a general assessment of the market’s ability to rebound, not narrowly limited to a specific, precisely defined containment scenario. In the real world that unfolded, the outcome he said essentially could not happen – a rapid V‑shaped return to prior highs – did occur.

Conclusion Because U.S. equities in fact staged a historically fast V‑shaped recovery from the COVID‑19 crash, contradicting his claim that the market “cannot come roaring back,” this prediction is best classified as wrong.