Summary of the prediction
Chamath predicted in March 2020 that:

1. “this eurozone is going to collapse” – i.e., the eurozone would cease to function as a meaningful economic/political construct.
2. “Japan is finished” – i.e., Japan would effectively stop mattering as an independent major economic power.
3. Only China and the United States would be the two economies that meaningfully matter globally.

As of late 2025, these components are not borne out by observable facts.

1. Status of the eurozone

• The eurozone (countries using the euro and participating in the EU’s Economic and Monetary Union) is intact and has not collapsed. The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to operate, and the euro remains the world’s second most important reserve currency after the U.S. dollar.
• The eurozone collectively remains one of the world’s largest economic blocs by GDP, alongside the U.S. and China; standard rankings of economies and blocs still list the euro area/EU as a top-tier economic entity rather than a defunct or collapsed system.

While the eurozone has faced challenges (COVID-19 shock, energy crisis after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflation, etc.), none of these have led to dissolution, widespread abandonment of the euro, or a loss of its role as a major global economic center. The core claim of a collapse is therefore false.

2. Status of Japan as a major economic power

• Japan remains one of the largest economies in the world by nominal GDP (typically ranked 3rd or 4th globally, depending on whether you look at euro area as a bloc and how you treat India’s growth). It is still regularly listed in global GDP rankings as a top economy.
• Japan remains central in key global industries and supply chains (automotive, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors/electronics components, robotics, and advanced materials). Major Japanese firms (Toyota, Sony, Mitsubishi, etc.) remain global leaders with significant market caps and global operations.
• Japan is also a core member of the G7, a major holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and a key player in international economic and security arrangements in the Indo‑Pacific region.

Japan faces well-known structural issues (aging population, high public debt, long periods of low inflation/low growth), but it has not ceased to matter as a major independent economic power.

3. Are only China and the U.S. the economies that “meaningfully matter”?

• Global economic influence today is still distributed among several major actors: the U.S., China, the EU/euro area, Japan, and increasingly India, among others.
• International economic policy fora (G7, G20, IMF, World Bank, WTO) and global market behavior all treat the eurozone/EU and Japan as major players whose policies and conditions significantly affect global growth, trade, capital flows, and financial stability.

Thus, it is not accurate to say that only the U.S. and China “meaningfully matter” in the global economic system as of 2025.

Conclusion

Because:

• The eurozone has not collapsed and continues to function as a major economic and political bloc; and
• Japan remains a top-tier independent economic power with substantial global influence; and
• Other economies beyond just the U.S. and China still clearly matter in global economics,

the prediction from March 2020 is not borne out by events up to November 29, 2025.

Result: The prediction is wrong.