Summary: The prediction mixes one broadly correct intuition (no quick return to normal) with several concrete forecasts that turned out wrong. Overall, the detailed time-path he gave for health, macroeconomy, and the S&P 500 did not match what happened.

1. “0% chance we’re back to business as usual in a couple of months”
Chamath said the probability that COVID-19 and its economic consequences would be fully resolved and the U.S. would be back to business as usual by roughly May 2020 was 0%. In reality, the federal COVID-19 public health emergency ran from January 31, 2020 until May 11, 2023, and major social and economic disruptions persisted well past mid‑2020.(en.wikipedia.org) Early May 2020 small‑business surveys showed most firms expected more than six months before returning to normal operations, not a quick rebound within a couple of months.(census.gov) This part of his view was directionally correct.

2. Health impacts largely dealt with in 8–12 weeks (by May 2020)
He predicted that “first order effects of the disease” would mostly be dealt with within 8–12 weeks, and that by around May 2020 “we’ll be through most of the worst of it.” In fact:

• By April 30, 2020, the U.S. had about 61,000 recorded COVID deaths and 1+ million cases.(en.wikipedia.org)
• Far larger waves followed: by January 19, 2021 the U.S. had passed 400,000 deaths, and by September 2021 COVID had killed over 675,000 Americans, surpassing estimated U.S. deaths from the 1918 flu.(en.wikipedia.org)
• The pandemic continued with major surges through 2021–22; it did not become a minor residual issue after May 2020.

Given that the deadliest waves and the bulk of total mortality came after his 8–12 week window, the claim that the “worst of it” would be over by May 2020 was wrong.

3. Economic bottom in Q3–Q4 2020
Chamath forecast that the economic bottom would come in Q3 or Q4 2020. Instead:

• The National Bureau of Economic Research later dated the recession’s trough to April 2020, implying the recession ran only from February to April 2020.(nber.org)
• Real GDP fell at a record annualized rate of about –31.4% in Q2 2020, then rebounded sharply with +33.1% annualized growth in Q3 2020, and grew again in Q4.(bea.gov)

So on standard macro indicators (NBER dates, GDP), the economic bottom occurred in spring/Q2 2020, not in Q3–Q4. This timing prediction was wrong.

4. S&P 500 falling to ~2000 or lower
He expected the S&P 500 to “touch 2000 … if not lower.” The actual market behavior:

• The S&P 500’s pandemic crash bottomed on March 23, 2020, with an intraday low of 2,191.86 and a closing level of 2,237.40, then began a sustained rebound and went on to make new record highs later in 2020.(statmuse.com)
• The index never reached 2000 or below during that episode.

Thus, his specific level call for the S&P 500 was too bearish and incorrect.

Overall assessment

• Correct: Skepticism that the pandemic and its economic fallout would be fully resolved and “back to normal” within a couple of months.
• Incorrect: (a) that most of the worst health impacts would be over by May 2020, (b) that the economic bottom would be in Q3–Q4 2020 rather than in spring/Q2, and (c) that the S&P 500 would fall to ~2000 or lower.

Because the three concrete, testable sub‑predictions about health timing, economic trough, and market level all turned out wrong, the overall forecast is best classified as wrong, despite getting the general “no quick normalization” intuition right.