Summary of what actually happened

1. Total size of federal COVID support

   • The CARES Act (March 2020) provided about $2.2 trillion in spending, tax breaks, loans, and other support. (crfb.org)
   • The December 2020 package in the Consolidated Appropriations Act added roughly $900 billion in additional COVID relief. (crfb.org)
   • The American Rescue Plan Act (March 2021) added about $1.9 trillion more. (usafacts.org)
   • Analyses of all COVID bills together conclude Congress authorized roughly $6 trillion of support with a net budgetary cost well over $5 trillion. (crfb.org)
     → On overall scale, federal COVID support was multi‑trillion and actually larger than $3T.

2. How the support was structured
   A breakdown of roughly $3.4 trillion in early COVID relief (through the December 2020 package) shows: (crfb.org)

   • About $935 billion for small business grants and loans (largely the PPP and related programs).
   • About $590 billion for expanded unemployment benefits.
   • About $460 billion for direct rebate checks to individuals.
   • The rest went to health spending, state and local aid, tax relief, and other items.
     While the Paycheck Protection Program and other facilities were technically loans, they were widely designed to be forgiven and functioned more like grants than repayable credit. (crfb.org)

Comparison to Friedberg’s prediction

Prediction (normalized): “The US federal government will ultimately implement on the order of a $3 trillion support program, structured largely as loans or similar financial support that small businesses and unemployed individuals can access.”

• Correct on scale: The total federal response clearly exceeded $3T; being “on the order of $3T” is directionally right, though the actual figure ended up closer to $5T+ in net cost and about $6T authorized. (crfb.org)
• Partially right on targeting: A very large share of the money did flow to small businesses (PPP, other programs) and unemployed workers (expanded UI), matching the groups he emphasized. (crfb.org)
• Not accurate on structure (“largely as loans”):
  • Only about $935B of ~$3.4T in the early bills is categorized as small‑business grants/loans; much of the rest is unemployment benefits, direct checks, and other transfers, not loans. (crfb.org)
  • Even the marquee “loan” program (PPP) was designed for widespread forgiveness, acting more like a grant than a traditional repayable loan. (crfb.org)
  • Later support in the $1.9T American Rescue Plan leaned heavily on direct payments, tax credits, and spending, not loan structures. (usafacts.org)

Why the verdict is ‘ambiguous’

• On the core quantitative and macro point — that the federal government would need and ultimately provide multi‑trillion‑dollar economic backstops — the prediction was broadly validated.
• On the qualitative design point — that this would be “a $3T loan package” structured largely as loans or loan‑like support — the reality diverged: the support was more than $3T and dominated by grants, checks, enhanced unemployment, and other transfers, with loan programs an important but not majority share.

Because a key part of his claim (scale and target groups) was right, but another key part (being largely loans rather than broad fiscal transfers) was wrong, the overall outcome is best characterized as mixed rather than clearly right or clearly wrong.