Evidence indicates that Friedberg’s prediction was broadly accurate on both timing and severity for Tom Hanks and the first wave of NBA players, with some minor caveats.

Tom Hanks timing and characterization

• Hanks and Rita Wilson announced on March 11, 2020 that they had tested positive, describing their symptoms as feeling tired, with body aches and “like we had colds” and mild fever – i.e., explicitly cold‑like rather than severe illness. (heart.co.uk)
• On March 23, 2020, Hanks tweeted: “Two weeks after our first symptoms and we feel better,” emphasizing shelter‑in‑place and that this would pass. This is roughly nine days after the March 14 podcast date and fits the “out of acute illness in ~10 days” window. (time.com)
• Subsequent coverage stated they had been discharged from hospital and were recovering in self‑isolation, and by March 27 they were reported back in Los Angeles after recovering – no reports of a severe, long‑lasting condition from Hanks himself. (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
• Hanks does not appear to have used the exact words “bad cold,” but he publicly framed the symptoms as cold‑like and then quickly “feeling better,” matching the prediction’s qualitative thrust (mild, non‑lasting illness rather than something dramatic or chronic).

NBA players’ outcomes and timing

• Early NBA cases included Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell of the Utah Jazz (announced March 11–12), and Christian Wood (March 14), among others. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Christian Wood’s agent reported him “fully recovered” by March 25, 2020, 11 days after his positive test and essentially matching the ~10‑day window from the March 14 prediction. (en.wikipedia.org)
• The Utah Department of Health cleared the Utah Jazz (including Gobert and Mitchell) of COVID‑19 on March 27, 2020 – about 16 days after their positive tests, still a relatively quick, uncomplicated recovery for young, highly conditioned athletes. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Later reporting shows Gobert had lingering loss of smell months afterward, but notes that he “quickly recovered from the virus” in terms of acute illness; the smell deficit was the main residual effect. (washingtonpost.com)

Assessment

• Core claims – that Hanks and the first wave of NBA players, being healthy and well cared for, would recover from acute COVID‑19 relatively quickly (on the order of ~10 days from mid‑March) and that Hanks would publicly describe it as a cold‑like, non‑catastrophic illness – are supported by the record.
• The exact 10‑day timing is approximate rather than perfect (some players were cleared a bit later), and Hanks didn’t literally say “bad cold,” but he did portray it as akin to having colds and soon after said he and Wilson felt better.

Taken together, the real‑world outcomes line up closely enough with Friedberg’s probabilistic prediction that it should be judged right, with only minor deviations in wording and a few lingering but non‑severe symptoms in one NBA player (Gobert).