Last updated Nov 29, 2025
economy
If supply chain bottlenecks and Covid‑related regulatory constraints are not substantially resolved, the US could experience a 1970s‑style stagflationary recession in 2022 (high inflation combined with stagnant or contracting real growth).
unless it gets fixed, it could absolutely cause a 1970s style stagflation type recession next year.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence from 2022 shows that the U.S. did not experience a 1970s‑style stagflationary recession:

  • Inflation: Consumer inflation was very high in 2022, averaging about 8.0% for the year, the highest since the early 1980s. (theworlddata.com) This matches the “high inflation” part of the prediction.
  • Real growth: However, real GDP grew by about 2.1% in 2022, rather than showing stagnant or contracting output for the year. (bea.gov) While real GDP fell in Q1 2022 and was near‑flat in Q2, growth rebounded in the second half, leaving the year as a whole in expansion, not recession. (sidedumpindustries.com)
  • Unemployment: The unemployment rate returned to its pre‑pandemic low levels in 2022, averaging a little over 3% by quarter—very far from the elevated unemployment that characterized 1970s stagflation. (bls.gov)
  • Recession status: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is the standard arbiter of U.S. business cycles, has not dated any new recession after the brief COVID recession ending in April 2020; subsequent years, including 2022, are treated as part of an ongoing expansion. (nber.org)

Because 2022 featured high inflation but continued real growth, low unemployment, and no officially recognized recession, the “1970s‑style stagflation type recession” that Sacks warned about did not occur. Therefore, the prediction is best judged as wrong.