Sacks predicted in November 2022 that the U.S. was at the start of a long cycle of rising unemployment and entering a “really serious” recession that would be deeper and more sustained than the brief technical recession earlier in 2022.

Unemployment path: The unemployment rate in late 2022 was about 3.6%. BLS data show it only inched up over the following years: around 3.8% by Q4 2023 and 4.2% by Q4 2024, with the 2023 labor market described by BLS as still strong and unemployment “low by historical standards.”(bls.gov)(bls.gov) By mid‑2025, unemployment was roughly 4.0–4.4%, the highest in a few years but still moderate, with ongoing (if slower) job growth and reports emphasizing labor‑market resilience rather than a collapse.(reuters.com)(reuters.com) That represents a mild, gradual rise rather than the kind of sharp, prolonged spike typically associated with a severe recession.

Recession severity: After the two quarters of negative GDP in early 2022, real GDP turned positive and grew through late 2022 and all of 2023–2024, with annual growth around 2–3% and strong consumer spending.(bea.gov)(apnews.com)(barrons.com) In 2025, GDP contracted modestly in Q1 but then rebounded strongly in Q2, so there has not been a multi‑quarter contraction. Independent of the “two quarters” rule, the National Bureau of Economic Research’s business‑cycle chronology still shows the last U.S. recession ending in April 2020, with no new recession dated through 2025.(nber.org) Major coverage in 2025 likewise notes that, as of late 2025, the U.S. is not officially in recession, even though some indicators weakened.(ft.com)

Taken together, the U.S. did not experience a deep, sustained recession after November 2022, and unemployment rose only modestly from very low levels rather than entering a pronounced, long‑running upcycle. The core of Sacks’s prediction—an imminent, "really serious" recession worse than the brief 2022 episode—has not materialized, so the prediction is best judged wrong overall.