The prediction was that around the March 2024 expiry of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), the Fed would either extend BTFP or create a successor facility providing similar special liquidity to regional banks.

What actually happened:

1. The Fed explicitly announced that BTFP would end on schedule on March 11, 2024, and did not extend it. In a January 24, 2024 press release, the Federal Reserve Board stated that the BTFP “will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11” and only adjusted the interest rate on remaining loans; it did not announce any extension. (federalreserve.gov)

2. The Fed’s own BTFP page confirms the facility stopped extending new loans on March 11, 2024. The official description notes that “The BTFP ceased extending new loans on March 11, 2024,” with no mention of renewal. (federalreserve.gov)

3. Independent reporting also describes BTFP as ending on schedule, with no successor program. Reuters and other outlets reported that the Fed would “allow [the] emergency bank lending program to expire on March 11” and that the program “stopped making new loans on March 11, a year after its creation,” again with no indication of a replacement facility. (investing.com)

4. Support continued only via existing, ordinary facilities, not a new special program. In its communications on BTFP’s wind-down, the Fed emphasized that after March 11, banks would continue to have “ready access to the discount window” and other standard tools; this is part of the standing framework, not a new emergency or special regional-bank facility. (bankingjournal.aba.com)

5. Remaining BTFP loans simply ran to maturity; that is not an extension or successor. Banks could borrow or refinance up to March 10–11, 2024 for terms of up to one year, meaning outstanding balances persisted into 2025, but this was within the original one‑year loan design and did not constitute an extension of the program’s authorization or the creation of a new facility. (reuters.com)

6. Later Fed analysis treats BTFP as a time‑limited, closed program, with no follow‑on facility. A 2025 Federal Reserve staff paper describes BTFP as an emergency liquidity facility that “ceased issuing new loans in March 2024 and closed one year later as the last loans matured,” without referencing any replacement program. (federalreserve.gov)

Given that the Fed neither extended BTFP past its scheduled March 11, 2024 end date nor created a clearly analogous successor emergency facility for regional banks, the core prediction—that the Fed would have to replace or extend BTFP to keep supporting regional banks—did not occur. Therefore, the prediction is wrong.