The prediction was explicitly conditional: “if the federal government doesn't step in here, the whole regional banking system could be decimated, and you're just going to be left with four too big to fail banks.”

What happened instead:

• On March 12, 2023, the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC announced that all depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank would be fully protected, even above the normal FDIC insurance limits, and created the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to support banks’ liquidity.
• This is widely described in official releases and news coverage as the federal government “stepping in” to backstop depositors and stabilize the banking system.

Because the if-clause (“if the federal government doesn't step in here”) was not satisfied, we cannot empirically evaluate the implied counterfactual outcome (whether regional banks would have been “decimated” and consolidated into roughly four big banks). The actual path of history tells us what happened with intervention, not what would have happened without it.

Therefore, the accuracy of this statement is inconclusive: the condition for the prediction never occurred, so the prediction cannot be judged as right or wrong on observed outcomes.