According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is the official arbiter of U.S. business cycles, the most recent U.S. recession ran from a peak in February 2020 to a trough in April 2020. NBER’s chronology shows no subsequent recession dates after April 2020, meaning the U.S. economy has been in an expansion since May 2020 and did not enter a new recession in late 2022 or during 2023–2024. (nber.org)

Macroeconomic data back this up. Real GDP growth remained positive year‑over‑year throughout 2022–2024, with U.S. real GDP growing 1.9% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, and continuing to grow at roughly 2–3% annual rates into 2024–2025. (ycharts.com) Labor-market indicators also stayed relatively strong: the unemployment rate was in the mid‑3% range through 2023 and averaged around 4.0% in 2024—levels typically associated with expansion, not a deep, multi‑year recession. (statistico.com)

Because the U.S. never actually entered the kind of broad, officially recognized recession he described in late 2022, the prediction that “this recession” would last about two years (through late 2024) did not come true in macroeconomic terms.