I think I think it could pass because I think they're planning to do this tax increase as part of the second infrastructure bill... I think that bill will pass. I don't know if the rate will stay at 39.6, but I think there will be a big increase clearly in the cap gains rate.View on YouTube
Biden’s April 2021 proposal called for raising the top long‑term capital‑gains rate for high earners from 20% to 39.6% (plus the 3.8% NIIT) as part of his American Families Plan / broader economic agenda. That increase was envisioned to move through a second, more "human infrastructure"‑focused bill (often discussed alongside or after the American Jobs Plan / physical infrastructure bill).
What actually happened:
- No long‑term capital‑gains rate hike for individuals was enacted. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (the major tax-and-spending bill that did pass via budget reconciliation) focused on: a 15% corporate minimum tax, a 1% stock‑buyback excise tax, enhanced IRS enforcement, and clean‑energy and health‑care provisions. It did not raise the statutory long‑term capital‑gains rate for high‑income individuals; the top federal LTCG rate remains 20% (plus the 3.8% NIIT) for high earners.
- The broader “human infrastructure” / Build Back Better vision never passed in the form that contained a large individual capital‑gains hike. A more expansive Build Back Better bill—where such individual tax hikes were negotiated—stalled in the Senate and was never enacted. Its eventual successor, the Inflation Reduction Act, omitted the long‑term capital‑gains rate increase.
Because (a) the second “human infrastructure” bill in the sense anticipated did not pass with those provisions, and (b) the federal top long‑term capital‑gains rate for high earners was not raised substantially above 20%, Sacks’s combined prediction—that the tax hike would be included in that second bill, that bill would pass, and that the LTCG rate would be substantially increased—is wrong.